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We can now only stay under 1.5°C target if we achieve net zero by 2034

The amount of carbon dioxide we can still emit to have just a 50 per cent
chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C is even smaller than previously
thought.

To have just a 50/50 chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C, the
world must keep future emissions to about 220 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide,
according to the latest estimate. With annual emissions at around 40
gigatonnes and still rising, we are on course to exceed this by 2029 or
earlier.

As a result, keeping that 1.5°C goal alive now requires us to hit
net-zero globally by 2034 rather than by 2050, says Joeri Rogelj at
Imperial College London. “There are no social or technical scenarios in
the scientific literature that even describe how that would be possible.”

However, it is still feasible to limit warming to well below 2°C, says
Robin Lamboll, also at Imperial College. To have a 50/50 chance of keeping
warming to 2°C, the world must not emit more than 1200 gigatonnes of CO2
(GtCO2). This wouldn’t be exceeded until 2046 if emissions continue at
current levels.

 New Scientist 30th Oct 2023

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2400140-we-can-now-only-stay-under-1-5c-target-if-we-achieve-net-zero-by-2034/

November 7, 2023 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | climate change