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Historian Peter Kuznick Warns of WW3, Nuclear War If Conflicts Don’t De-Escalate

HISTORIAN PETER KUZNICK: HEADING FOR WWIII, NUCLEAR WINTER …Must De-Escalate Conflicts!!!

 https://www.tmz.com/2023/10/19/historian-peter-kuznick-wanrs-wwiii-nuclear-war-winter-gaza-ukraine-taiwan/

Historian Peter Kuznick fears for the fate of humanity … warning of a third world war and a nuclear winter if conflicts across the globe continue to escalate.

The author and American University professor joined us on “TMZ Live” Thursday, and we asked him just how close we are to World War III, given the war in the Middle East.

Peter says things were already trending towards a doomsday scenario as a result of the war between Ukraine and Russia and the situation in Taiwan … and he fears recent developments in Gaza may push things over the edge.

The way Peter sees a nightmare situation unfolding — Israel invades Palestine, forcing Hezbollah to join the war — and then other countries are drawn into battle.

From there, Peter says it’s an all-out world war … and it’s pretty much guaranteed nuclear warheads will be used.

Peter explains how even a small number of nukes would create a nuclear winter capable of killing 2 billion people across the globe … telling us it would be worse than ever imagined.

With the United States mobilizing warships, aircraft and troops to help Israel, Peter says humanity is sitting on the proverbial powder keg … but he’s got some solutions to avoid cataclysm. #nuclear #antinuclear #nuclearfree #NoNukes

October 22, 2023 Posted by | weapons and war | Leave a comment

Holy See urges renewed efforts to advance nuclear disarmament

Archbishop Gabriele Giordano Caccia, the Vatican’s Permanent Observer to the UN in New York, says that despite the “dark clouds” of growing conflict and “escalatory rhetoric”, there is still space for hope that progress in nuclear disarmament can be achieved.

Vatican News, By Lisa Zengarini 20 Oct 23

The Holy See has decried the current “downward spiral of arms control and disarmament policies”, urging for “renewed efforts to advance progress on nuclear disarmament at a time when the risk of nuclear war becomes again a reality.”  

Speaking on 17 October at the First Committee of the UN 78th General Assembly (UNGA) in New York, which addresses disarmament and international security matters, Archbishop Gabriele Giordano Caccia lamented that the international community “has collectively moved in the wrong direction, discarding important treaties on arms control, disarmament and transparency”, with “the international disarmament machinery remaining in deadlock.”

Stall in talks on the review of the NPT 

Since 2010, periodic talks for the review of the landmark 1970 Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) have stalled, as international tensions have increased.

Following the failure of the 2015 Review Conference, the 2022 review conference ended again without agreement as Russia blocked consensus on the negotiated outcome document.

This poses significant risks for the global non-proliferation regime with some states, including Iran, increasing their interest in acquiring nuclear weapons. 

Increased polarization and distrust between States

In his statement, Archbishop Caccia expressed the Holy See’s disappointment “at the increased levels of polarization and mistrust at the First Session of the Preparatory Commission for the 11th Review Conference of on NPT due to take place in 2026.

“At a time when flexibility is most needed, the lack of a chair’s summary will be detrimental in working towards consensus” in 2026, the Vatican Permanent Observer to the UN said.  …………………………………………………………………….

Condemnation of rhetoric that threatens use of nuclear weapons and nuclear testing

Archbishop Caccia furher relayed the Holy See’s unequivocal condemnation of all rhetoric that threatens the use of nuclear weapons, recalling that such threats “increase tensions and elevate the risk of both intentional and unintentional use, placing humanity at the precipice of calamity.”……………………………

Archbishop Caccia concluded his intervention by saying that despite the “dark clouds of growing conflict and escalatory rhetoric there is ample space for hope.”

In this regard, he said the Holy See looks forward to the convening of the Second meeting of States Parties of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW). It also welcomes the deliberations of the NPT Working Group on Further Strengthening the Review Process.

Listen to our report  https://www.vaticannews.va/en/vatican-city/news/2023-10/holy-see-urges-renewed-efforts-to-advance-nuclear-disarmament.html #nuclear #antinuclear #nuclearfree #NoNukes

October 22, 2023 Posted by | Religion and ethics | Leave a comment

Antipodean Nuclear Free Zones: Testing Times for Antarctica and the South Pacific

October 19, 2023  https://nonproliferation.org/antipodean-nuclear-free-zones-testing-times-for-antarctica-and-the-south-pacific/

Australia and New Zealand have historically promoted strong anti-nuclear policies at both a global, regional, and sub-regional level. They joined with the United States and the other original parties to the 1959 Antarctic Treaty to make Antarctica nuclear free.

Both countries also took France to the International Court of Justice in 1973 in order to bring about a halt to France’s nuclear testing program in the South Pacific, and actively promoted the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone in the 1985 Treaty of Rarotonga.

However, in 2021 Australia along with the UK and US announced the AUKUS initiative, which in March 2023 was finalized in San Diego. Australia will eventually acquire AUKUS nuclear-powered submarines during the 2030s.

This has placed a spotlight on Australia’s anti-nuclear credentials and its international law commitments and has attracted criticism from within the Asia Pacific, including from New Zealand, Pacific island states, and China. This seminar considers these issues through the lens of international law.

VIDEO – on original

Chapters:
00:00:00 Moderator: Avner Cohen, Professor, Nonproliferation and Terrorism Studies, Middlebury Institute of International Studies
00:01:44 Speaker: Donald R. Rothwell, Professor of International Law, ANU College of Law, Australian National University
00:57:07 Q&A #nuclear #antinuclear #nuclearfree #NoNukes

October 22, 2023 Posted by | AUSTRALIA, weapons and war | Leave a comment

NTI Releases New Paper on Global Effects of Nuclear Conflict: Implications for Nuclear Policymaking, Then and Now

 https://www.nti.org/news/nti-releases-new-paper-on-global-effects-of-nuclear-conflict-implications-for-nuclear-policymaking-then-and-now/ 20 Oct 23

Forty years ago, findings on the global climatic effects of nuclear war first introduced the prospect of “nuclear winter.” In the decades since, the consequences of nuclear use have remained only incidental to considerations of nuclear policy. A new paper from NTI, “Global Effects of Nuclear Conflict: Implications for Nuclear Policymaking, Then and Now,” highlights the need for renewed attention to the catastrophic effects of nuclear conflict as a crucial step toward reducing the risk of nuclear use.

The paper provides historical context and describes how the scientific revelation of “nuclear winter” was first received by the U.S. defense community in the 1980s. It sheds light on the debate that emerged over how U.S. nuclear policy should account for the implications of the global effects of nuclear use, as many of the questions posed then are even more important to consider in the context of today’s interconnected and economically interdependent world. The complexity of modern global systems creates new vulnerabilities and introduces risks of cascading societal, economic, industrial, and political failures that countries are dangerously unprepared to address.

Both a reflective analysis and a forward-looking call for renewed investigation into and consideration of the global effects of nuclear conflict, the paper outlines several critical questions for experts and policymakers to confront, including:

  • How does the recognition of global nuclear effects change the role and perceived utility of nuclear weapons in national security strategies?
  • How should the cascading effects of nuclear war shape nuclear planning?
  • Why has research into cascading nuclear effects been neglected in nuclear policy discussions?

Without answers to these important questions, nuclear weapons policy will continue to be premised on an incomplete understanding of the consequences of nuclear use, risking catastrophic miscalculations and endangering national and global security.

October 22, 2023 Posted by | weapons and war | Leave a comment

Does Israel have effective nuclear weapons? Chinese military experts have doubts

  • As Israel’s war with Hamas rages on in Gaza, international groups worry about potential for nuclear conflict
  • Chinese defence contractor says reliability of Israeli nuclear strike capabilities is ‘questionable’

SCMP. Victoria Bela,  20 Oct, 2023

“………………………………………………………………..  the extent of Israel’s nuclear capabilities – and whether the country could use them effectively in battle – remains an open question

Many international organisations and countries – including China – believe that Israel has nuclear weapons. But Israel has conducted few, if any, tests. The mystery that surrounds its nuclear programme has sparked questions among military experts about the nation’s actual deterrence capabilities.

Israel has long maintained a policy of “nuclear ambiguity” – meaning it has never directly confirmed or denied the existence of a nuclear arsenal.

Israel is universally believed to possess nuclear arms stored in a partially disassembled state,” Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association (ACA), told the Post via email on Thursday.

The nation is “estimated to have 90 nuclear warheads”, with the fissile material stockpiles to have over 200, he said.

Kimball added that the use of nuclear weapons, and even the threat of use, would make Israel “an international pariah and a target of foreign, conventional military attack”.

The International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), a 2017 Nobel Peace Prize laureate, said in a statement on Monday that “Israel is a nuclear-armed state, the only such state in the Middle East”.

Alicia Sanders-Zakre, ICAN’s policy and research coordinator, told the Post via email that “Israel’s possession of nuclear weapons significantly increases the risks associated with the conflict and contributes to regional tensions”.

“Escalation is a real danger,” she said………………………………..

The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons considers the US, Britain, China, France and Russia to be “nuclear states”, because they built and tested nuclear explosives before 1967. Israel, Pakistan and India have never signed the treaty.

The five treaty-recognised nuclear powers “all have land, sea and air-based nuclear strike capabilities and maintain a higher level of nuclear combat readiness”, according to a paper published earlier this month in a journal run by China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation Limited, an aerospace defence contractor for the People’s Liberation Army.

But according to the paper, the effectiveness of nuclear strikes based solely on land-based capabilities, which is all the authors believe Israel possesses, is “questionable”.

The nuclear nations that have not signed on to the non-proliferation treaty have conducted fewer than 10 nuclear tests each, compared to nearly 50 conducted by China and over 1,000 conducted by the US, according to the United Nations……………………………

Sanders-Zakre noted that Israel was suspected of conducting a joint nuclear weapons test with South Africa in 1979, which was picked up as a flash by the US satellite Vela in waters close to South Africa.

Israel is not known to have conducted any other tests. However, the country did not build its nuclear programme alone.

n the 1960s, France helped Israel establish the Negev Nuclear Research Centre near the city of Dimona, which was capable of producing nuclear weapons. The US only discovered the facility after construction began, according to researchers at the Wilson Center, a Washington-based think tank.

Israel has US-made aircraft capable of delivering nuclear bombs and German-made submarines capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

Israel’s own Jericho ballistic missiles are also capable of delivering nuclear warheads over 1,500km (932 miles) to nearby nations, according to an article written by Clive Williams, a visiting professor at the Australian National University’s Strategic and Defence Studies Centre.

While the exact details of Israel’s nuclear warheads and delivery methods are unknown, its US- and German-made vehicles could act as reliable delivery methods if fitted for nuclear warheads.

In August, the IAEA’s director general wrote in a report that there was a “long-standing and fundamental difference of views” between Israel and other Middle Eastern states regarding the regulation of nuclear activity.

Kimball pointed out that Israel only has agreements to allow the IAEA to inspect specific facilities and does not – unlike most non-nuclear states – have a comprehensive safeguard agreement “to ensure that civilian nuclear activities and materials are not being diverted for nuclear weapons use.”

Kimball said that while Israel had a nuclear arsenal, the country had “no justification nor any military need to employ nuclear weapons”.

The ACA is “deeply concerned about a further escalation of violence against civilian populations,” Kimball said. “But we are not concerned that this might involve the use of nuclear weapons.”

Although Israel has insisted that it has no interest in “introducing” nuclear weapons to the Middle East, it has continued to avoid signing comprehensive safeguard agreements with the IAEA.


In a vote at the UN General Assembly last year, a vast majority of member states called for Israel to place all of its nuclear sites under IAEA supervision and to get rid of any nuclear weapons it possessed.

more https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3238708/does-israel-have-effective-nuclear-weapons-chinese-military-experts-have-doubts #nuclear #antinuclear #nuclearfree #NoNukes

October 22, 2023 Posted by | Israel, weapons and war | Leave a comment

China highlights marine radiation monitoring in draft law revision

China Daily, Xinhua 2023-10-20 

BEIJING — China is considering strengthening its monitoring of radiation in the marine environment in the latest draft revision to the Marine Environment Protection Law, a spokesperson said Thursday.

Scheduled for its third deliberation at a session of the country’s top legislature in late October, the draft revision states that departments of the State Council in charge of environmental issues should set out emergency plans for radiation monitoring and organize its implementation.

The draft stresses improving the capacity of monitoring and managing the marine environment by raising the technological and informatization level, and requires efforts to enhance comprehensive, coordinated and regular monitoring, according to Yang Heqing, a spokesperson for the Legislative Affairs Commission of the National People’s Congress (NPC) Standing Committee, at a press briefing.

Pollution prevention and control in rivers flowing into the sea should also be strengthened in coordinated efforts to ensure the water quality at the mouths of the rivers meets the relevant standards, Yang said citing the draft revision

The sixth session of the 14th NPC Standing Committee will be held from Oct. 20 to 24. The NPC Standing Committee completed two readings of previous versions of the draft revision to the Marine Environment Protection Law in December last year and June……..

https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202310/20/WS6531db77a31090682a5e9b28.html #nuclear #antinuclear #nuclearfree #NoNukes

October 22, 2023 Posted by | China, oceans | Leave a comment