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Pakistan has 170 nuclear warheads, and may increase it to 200 by 2025, say American atomic scientists

LiveMint.  15 Sep 2023

Top American nuclear scientists have estimated that Pakistan currently possesses roughly 170 nuclear warheads, and this number could potentially increase to approximately 200 by the year 2025, based on the current rate of expansion.

As reported by PTI citing the Nuclear Notebook column published in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists on September 11, “We estimate that Pakistan now has a nuclear weapons stockpile of approximately 170 warheads. The US Defense Intelligence Agency projected in 1999 that Pakistan would have 60 to 80 warheads by 2020, but several new weapon systems have been fielded and developed since then, which leads us to a higher estimate.”……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

Even when the document listed fissile materials production and inventory from available sources in the public domain, the scientists put out a disclaimer: “Calculating stockpile size based solely on fissile material inventory is an incomplete methodology that tends to overestimate the likely number of nuclear warheads.”

“We estimate that Pakistan currently is producing sufficient fissile material to build 14 to 27 new warheads per year, although we estimate that the actual warhead increase in the stockpile probably averages around 5 to 10 warheads per year,” they further said………………………………………………………………………

Commenting on the 2017’s medium-range ballistic missile called Ababeel that Pakistan said is “capable of carrying multiple warheads, using multiple independent reentry vehicle (MIRV) technology,” the Nuclear Notebook observed, “Development of multiple-warhead capability appears to be intended as a countermeasure against India’s planned ballistic missile defense system. Its status remains unclear as of July 2023.”

Pointing out that the total number and location of Pakistan’s nuclear-capable missile bases and facilities remains unknown, the document said, “Analysis of commercial satellite imagery suggests that Pakistan maintains at least five missile bases that could serve a role in Pakistan’s nuclear forces.”………………………………….

Admitting that little is publicly known about warhead production, the scientists said: “But experts have suspected for many years that the Pakistan Ordnance Factories near Wah, northwest of Islamabad, serve a role. One of the Wah factories is located near a unique facility with six earth-covered bunkers (igloos) inside a multi-layered safety perimeter with armed guards.”  https://www.livemint.com/news/world/pakistan-has-170-nuclear-warheads-and-may-increase-it-to-200-by-2025-says-american-atomic-scientists-11694753125105.html

September 17, 2023 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | Pakistan, weapons and war