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Ukraine war: how China can get the world to step back from nuclear Armageddon

China and the US have reached nuclear weapons agreements before. After India and Pakistan launched nuclear tests in 1998, China and the US, in a rare show of solidarity, declared they would not target their nuclear weapons at each other. This led to a joint statement in 2000 from the five nuclear-weapon states of China, the US, Britain, France and Russia that their nuclear weapons would not target each other or any other state.

• Hope lies in getting nuclear powers to agree to a ‘no first use’ policy. If China can persuade the US, then Britain and France are likely to fall in line
• The challenge is getting Moscow on board – which is likely to require Nato to agree to ‘no first use’ against Russia and back down on its eastward expansion

SCMP, Zhou Bo 4 Sept 23

No one knows how long the war in Ukraine will last. But everyone knows what the worst nightmare is: Russia unleashing nuclear weapons. The Russian leadership has repeatedly hinted at this.

Russian scholars such as Sergei Karaganov and Dmitri Trenin have recently joined the chorus, calling for tactical nuclear attacks on a Nato country, say Poland, to break “the West’s will” and convince them that Russia’s nuclear threats are no bluff.

By giving people pause, Russia’s nuclear deterrence seems to be working. But what if Moscow is not bluffing?

With the West nibbling away at its own red lines by sending more sophisticated weapons to Kyiv that were considered taboo at the beginning of the war effort, how can one rest assured that Moscow will not reach for nuclear weapons eventually?

The battle is in a stalemate. Kyiv’s attack drones have reportedly been found in Moscow. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently warned that “war is returning” to Russia. As the threat of an unspeakable horror against humanity looms larger, there is an urgent need to prevent a nuclear fallout.

Perhaps China can persuade the US to agree first to a nuclear weapons policy of “ no first use”, which can then be joined by Britain, France and finally – hopefully – Russia.

China and the US have reached nuclear weapons agreements before. After India and Pakistan launched nuclear tests in 1998, China and the US, in a rare show of solidarity, declared they would not target their nuclear weapons at each other. This led to a joint statement in 2000 from the five nuclear-weapon states of China, the US, Britain, France and Russia that their nuclear weapons would not target each other or any other state.

More recently, in January last year, a month before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the five nuclear power powers agreed that “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought”.

So why can’t they pledge a “no first use” policy? Such a stance would neither exclude nuclear retaliation nor neutralise a nuclear power’s ability to deter an attack.

For China, “no first use” has been its ironclad policy since its detonation of a nuclear device in 1964. Relations with Russia will not change China’s time-honoured policy. The Biden administration has declared that it “would only consider the use of nuclear weapons in extreme circumstances to defend the vital interests of the United States or its allies and partners”. This stance is not so far away from that of Beijing……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… more https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3233136/ukraine-war-how-china-can-get-world-step-back-nuclear-armageddon

September 4, 2023 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | China, politics international