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The AUKUS nuclear submarine deal is a nuclear proliferation danger

The plan to supply Australia with nuclear-powered submarines has met with anger from China and fears that it sets a dangerous precedent, writes Mike Higgins.

The AUKUS nuclear submarine deal is a challenge for the IAEA, Chatham House, 2 JUNE 2023, Mike Higgins

The trilateral security pact between the United States, the UK and Australia, known as Aukus, will be at the forefront of the International Atomic Energy Authority’s board of governors meeting in Vienna from June 5-9.

Rafael Grossi, the IAEA Director General, is due to present a report on the state of the negotiations governing the supply of new nuclear submarines to Australia. At issue is how arrangements for the supply of nuclear material will adhere to a never-before used article of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, or NPT.

Article 14 allows the use of nuclear material when not applied to weapons to be exempt from the usual safeguards and protocols under the NPT. By the early 2030s Australia will buy from the US up to five conventionally armed nuclear submarines and, a decade later, build a new class of nuclear-powered submarine with US and British technology. Approval from the IAEA watchdog is essential for these plans.

China has strongly criticized the agreement, saying, among other things, that the Aukus partnership ‘constitutes serious nuclear proliferation risks’, and that the alliance was forcing its own interpretations of Article 14 to suit its needs beyond the spirit of the NPT. ‘The international community has not reached any consensus on the definition of such military activity and there are huge divergences on the applicability of Article 14,’ said Wang Wenbin, China’s chief foreign ministry spokesperson, in March.

Grossi is expected to elaborate on the implications of the Aukus partnership at the IAEA’s board meeting.
At a Chatham House event in February, Grossi acknowledged the partnership required ‘a special arrangement’ between the Aukus partners and the IAEA, representing a ‘game changer’ for non-proliferation safeguards: ‘This is the beginning of a long road,’ he said.

A dangerous precedent? 

…………………. some experts urge caution over the exercising of Article 14, claiming it sets a dangerous precedent which could lead to nuclear material being diverted into the making of nuclear weapons.

‘My concern is not that Australia is going to remove nuclear material from safeguards and build a nuclear bomb,’ said James Acton, co-director of the Nuclear Policy Programme at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. ‘But once you normalize the precedent that it’s OK to remove nuclear material from IAEA safeguards you create a much higher risk that other states are likely to do so.

‘For instance, if Iran and Russia were to announce naval cooperation that looked like Aukus, I don’t believe that the US, Britain and Australia would feel comfortable with that on non-proliferation grounds,’ he said.

Other challenges lie ahead for the IAEA in monitoring Aukus. Nuclear submarines at sea may remain out of reach of inspectors for months at a time and nuclear fuel for naval reactors is highly classified − the Aukus partners may be unwilling to give inspectors access to its design or confirm the exact amounts to be used…………. https://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/the-world-today/2023-06/aukus-nuclear-submarine-deal-challenge-iaea

June 5, 2023 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | 2 WORLD, safety