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SCOTT RITTER: The Future of US Nuclear Strategy

The state of play today regarding strategic arms control between the U.S. and Russia can best be likened to a patient on life support whom no one is trying to revive.

This makes the 2024 U.S. presidential election one of the most critical in recent history. Simply put, the future of humanity may ride on whomever the American people vote for in November 2024.

In short, a vote for either Biden/the Democratic establishment or Trump/MAGA Republicans is a vote in favor of continuous nuclear-armed Russian roulette, where there exists only one certainty — eventually the pistol will go off. But in this case, it’s not a pistol, but a nuclear weapon that leads to general nuclear war and the termination of life on planet earth as we currently know and understand it.

April 7, 2023

The fallout from Washington’s policy of seeking Russia’s strategic defeat has seen Moscow radically alter its arms control position. That raises important questions about the winner of the next U.S. presidential election.

By Scott Ritter, Consortium News

The United States finds itself wandering in a wilderness of indecision when it comes to arms control policy.

The situation regarding the status of the last existing nuclear arms control treaty with Russia — the New START treaty — is dire. Implementation is currently frozen after Russia suspended its participation in protest to a stated U.S. policy objective of seeking the strategic defeat of Russia, something Russia finds incompatible with opening its strategic nuclear deterrent (which exists precisely to prevent Russia’s strategic defeat) to inspection by U.S. officials.

The U.S. is not talking with Russia about the future of arms control once New START expires in February 2026.

Moreover, fallout from the U.S. policy of seeking strategic defeat of Russia has seen Moscow radically alter its position regarding future arms control treaties. Any future agreement must, from the Russian perspective, include missile defense; the French and British nuclear arsenals, as well as the U.S.-supplied NATO nuclear deterrent.

Russia has further complicated any future negotiations by deploying tactical nuclear weapons to its Baltic enclave in Kaliningrad, as well as extending its Russian-controlled nuclear umbrella to Belarus where it has mirrored the NATO nuclear umbrella. 

The state of play today regarding strategic arms control between the U.S. and Russia can best be likened to a patient on life support whom no one is trying to revive.

Russia is in the process of finalizing a major modernization of its strategic nuclear forces, built around the new Sarmat heavy intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and the Avangard hypersonic reentry vehicle. The United States is on the cusp of initiating its own multi-billion dollar upgrade to the U.S. nuclear Triad consisting of the B-21 stealth bomber, the Columbia class missile submarine and the new Sentinel ICBM.

If no treaty vehicle exists designed to verifiably limit the deployment of these new weapons, once New START expires, the U.S. and Russia will find themselves engaged in an unconstrained nuclear arms race that dramatically increases the probability of unintended nuclear conflict.

When viewed in this light, the future of global security hinges on the ability of Russia and the U.S. returning to the negotiating table and resuscitating arms control from its present moribund state.

Key to this will be the willingness of Washington to incorporate Russian concerns into U.S. nuclear posture. To achieve this, the U.S. nuclear establishment will have to be shaken out of the calcified policy assumptions that have guided U.S. arms control policy since the end of the Cold War.

First and foremost amongst these assumptions is the need to promote and sustain U.S. primacy in global nuclear weapons capability. Whether such an assumption is jettisoned will be tied to the person occupying the White House after the February 2026 expiration of New START.

This makes the 2024 U.S. presidential election one of the most critical in recent history. Simply put, the future of humanity may ride on whomever the American people vote for in November 2024.

………………………………………………………………………………………… Biden ran in 2020 on a promise to change U.S. nuclear strategy away from the George W. Bush-era policy, when preemptive U.S. nuclear strikes were a possibility, to a doctrine holding that U.S. nuclear forces exist for the sole purpose of deterring a nuclear attack against the U.S., or retaliating if deterrence failed.

However, once elected Biden’s promise fell to the wayside as an “interagency process” run by unelected bureaucrats and military officers intervened to prevent campaign rhetoric from becoming official policy.

Biden, like every American president before him in the nuclear age, has been unable and/or unwilling to expend the political capital necessary to take on the American nuclear enterprise, and as a result the American people and the rest of humanity are held hostage by this deadly nexus between the U.S. military industrial complex and the U.S. Congress.

Congress allocates taxpayer money to underwrite a nuclear weapons-oriented, defense industry, which in turn feeds this money back into campaign contributions that empower a compromised Congress to keep funding the nuclear enterprise – creating a vicious cycle impervious to change of its own volition.

Biden or anyone Democratic candidate in 2024 is a byproduct of this very establishment, and a willing participant in the corrupt circle of money and power that is the nuclear, military industrial-congressional complex. In short, if Biden or his proxy is sitting in the White House in 2025, there will be no change in the U.S. nuclear posture on arms control policy.

This means any Democratic Party-controlled candidate voted into office in November 2024 may very well be the last president to hold office, given the probability of nuclear war between the U.S. and Russia, which an unchanged nuclear posture and arms control policy will foster.

The Trump Standard

…………………………………………………. Whether Trump could pull off a second successful presidential run is not the issue here. Instead, the question is whether Trump can promote an arms control stance different from Biden and the Democratic and Republican establishments that could break free of existing constraints — giving arms control a chance.

Trump’s track record is decidedly mixed in this regard…………………..

Trump’s willingness to break free of the ideological prison of rampant Russophobia by considering the possibility of friendly relations between the U.S. and Russia makes him unique among mainstream presidential candidates of either party……………………………………………………………

But there is another side to Trump which bodes poorly for any meaningful change in U.S.-Russian arms control. First and foremost is his abysmal record on arms control……………………………………………….

The bottom line is that the “Trump Standard” for arms control is in many ways even more dangerous than that of the “establishment,” promoting as it does an aggressive posture founded in dominance.

In the end, Trump proved incapable of acting on his own belief, allowing himself to be subordinated to a radical America-first national security ideology which promoted the enhancement and expansion of the American nuclear enterprise — the exact opposite trajectory the U.S. needs to be taking come 2024.

There is no reasonable expectation that a second Trump term would deviate meaningfully from that track record. 

A New American Standard in Arms Control

The harsh reality today is that neither of the two potential sources of viable presidential candidates for the 2024 election — Democratic National Committee or MAGA Republicans — are positioned to effect meaningful, positive change regarding either U.S. nuclear posture or underlying arms control policy.

That leaves the American people, and the world as a whole, with the inevitability of a massive nuclear arms race between the U.S. and Russia, which will unfold unconstrained by meaningful arms control treaty-mandated limitations………………………..

In short, a vote for either Biden/the Democratic establishment or Trump/MAGA Republicans is a vote in favor of continuous nuclear-armed Russian roulette, where there exists only one certainty — eventually the pistol will go off. But in this case, it’s not a pistol, but a nuclear weapon that leads to general nuclear war and the termination of life on planet earth as we currently know and understand it.

The rally held in Washington, D.C., on Feb. 19 provided a platform for some voices of sanity who have presidential potential, either as independent candidates, or rogue outliers within their respective party establishments. Tulsi Gabbard, Dennis Kucinich, Ron Paul, and Jimmy Dore all addressed the threat posed by nuclear weapons and the need to control them through meaningful arms control.

But none who spoke have put anything in writing that would remotely constitute an arms control “standard” that could compete with either Biden or Trump — or their proxies — on the public stage. Moreover, other than Dore, a comedian, none of these individuals has announced an intention to run, making moot, for the moment at least, the notion of a third option on arms control and American nuclear posture.

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., the nephew of former President John F. Kennedy, has announced his intention to challenge Biden for the Democratic nomination…………………………………

Kennedy has not published a detailed position on arms control and the U.S. nuclear posture. But in a recent conversation with me, he spoke about the legacy of his uncle, Jack Kennedy, and how he took guidance from that legacy.

Any man who draws upon the wisdom and patience displayed by President Kennedy to defuse the Cuban Missile Crisis would be on the right track when it comes to arms control. https://consortiumnews.com/2023/04/07/scott-ritter-the-future-of-us-nuclear-strategy/

April 9, 2023 Posted by | politics, USA | 1 Comment

France’s riverside reactor build plans “irresponsible” – expert.

MURIEL BOSELLI, Paris, 07 Apr 2023,  https://www.montelnews.com/news/1477431/edfs-riverside-reactor-build-plans-irresponsible–expert

(Montel) France’s plan to build two riverside reactors is “irresponsible”, given the acceleration of global warming-related water strain, nuclear expert and critic Yves Marignac told Montel.

Climate change has raised fears of extreme temperatures and droughts that will cause more outages at EDF’s 44 nuclear reactors – out of 56 – that are located along rivers and use water for cooling.

The average summer flow of the Rhone, on which 22% of France’s nuclear capacity is installed, could fall by 20% within 30 years, according to a recent study by the Rhone-Mediterranean-Corsica Water Agency.

However, EDF plans to build two additional reactors along the Rhone.

“We can always adapt the reactors to cool themselves by reducing their water withdrawal, as some reactors do in the desert,” said Marignac, but added that these costly developments “remove the interest of placing installations along rivers”.

Higher water use
He said he also feared a “considerable increase” in competition between water-intensive sectors such as agriculture, industry, energy and tourism.

EDF plans to build three pairs of European pressurised reactors (EPRs) by 2042-43 – one at Penly, a second at Gravelines (both on the coast), and a third at Bugey or Tricastin, on the Rhone.

The decision would be made by the end of the year, Joel Barre, inter-ministerial delegate for new nuclear power plants, told Montel.

Last week, president Emmanuel Macron announced a vast investment plan to adapt nuclear power plants to climate change, notably by equipping riverside units with air-cooling towers to make them less dependent on the temperature of waterways.

Although this system allows reactors to continue producing power during hot periods, it consumes much more water as a significant part of the volume withdrawn evaporates through the towers during cooling.

French energy minister Agnes Pannier-Runacher said earlier this week that scenarios established by the international group of climate experts Giec had shown “very limited losses [of production]”.

“Critical” risk
However, a recent report by France’s auditors’ court warned the impact of global warming on the French nuclear fleet could become “critical” by 2050, with three to four times more unavailability than today.

Last summer, France’s nuclear safety authority ASN authorised EDF to exceed temperature limits for some riverside plants to enable units to continue producing power during the drought.

Thibault Laconde, founder of climate risk assessment start-up Callendar, said EDF’s Tricastin site in southeastern France was a better choice than Bugey for cooling because it was near a section of the Rhone that had cool water inflow from the Isere river.

Melting ice caps
Building reactors by the sea also raised questions, experts said, because of uncertainties about the rising sea levels during the EPRs’ lifespan, which EDF has set at a minimum of 60 years.

The auditors’ court has called on EDF to anticipate “the low probability” of an acceleration in ice cap melting, which would lead to a rise in the average sea level of nearly 2 metres by 2100 and 5m by 2150.

However, EDF has only incorporated a sea level rise of around 1.2m into the design of its EPR reactors, said Barre.

EDF did not respond to Montel’s requests to comment.

April 9, 2023 Posted by | climate change, France | Leave a comment

The Other Atomic Concern in Taiwan—Nuclear Reactors

NEWSWEEK, GARRETT EHINGER , CHINA ANALYST, DEFENSE PRIORITIES, 4/7/23 

The Ukrainian nuclear reactor at Zaporizhzhia came dangerously close to a meltdown when Russian forces damaged power circuits, affecting cooling systems. This has sparked concern over Taiwan’s nuclear plants amid heightening tensions between China and the U.S. Considering China’s preparations to invade Taiwan, the United States should seek to establish a convention with China that explicitly forbids the intentional assault of nuclear establishments to both protect Taiwan against nuclear devastation, and also to open up much needed dialogue with China that may help relax tensions.

In a wartime scenario, nuclear reactors are something of a house of cards. It’s rather easy for stray ordinance to hit an unintended target, as demonstrated by stray missiles from the Ukraine conflict that landed in Poland, killing two civilians. Taiwanese reactors are not only near major population centers, but they also overlap with many optimal landing sites for Chinese invasion forces, heightening the risks of being damaged by close proximity to battlefronts.

Nick Roth, senior director of the Nuclear Threat Initiative’s Nuclear Materials Security Program, said that the risks of things going wrong either from direct or indirect attacks is “quite high.”

To manage rates of fission reactors rely on control rods to absorb radiation. If the control rods are damaged, there is nothing to limit reaction rates, and a small nuclear explosion can erupt. Cooling systems maintain temperature and pressure in nuclear reactors, and are extremely vulnerable in a warzone. If the power circuits to Taiwan’s Kuosheng reactor cooling systems get damaged, a meltdown could occur where temperatures and pressures reach explosive levels.

Even if these explosions themselves don’t have immediate anti-personnel effects, seasonal winds can still blow their radiation clouds onto large cities, sickening or killing thousands, and costing billions in damages.

Wenchung Liu, deputy minister of the Atomic Energy Committee in Taiwan, said in a September news conference last year that because of these risks of serious collateral damage, a deliberate attack by China on Taiwan’s nuclear power plants was “unlikely.” He claimed that military operations leading to damage and disruption of critical infrastructure were more realistic concerns

But Ian Easton, senior director at the 2049 Research Institute, disagreed. He pointed out that in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) course manuals the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) stated, “Taiwan’s nuclear power plants represent high-value military targets…[and advise] PLA combat commanders to … [use] helicopter gunships armed with anti-tank missiles” to attack facilities. The manuals also instruct soldiers to “wash off” nuclear radiation and not let it “slow you down as you finish conquering the island,” clearly indicating the CCPs lack of care about radiation damage to their troops.

……………………………………………………………… Ultimately, China and America desperately need détente. On top of absolving risks to Taiwanese nuclear reactors, a collaborative treaty between America and China prohibiting attacks on nuclear facilities could be the olive branch both countries seek. Thankfully, as former U.S. State Department foreign policy expert Bennett Ramberg pointed out, “a perfectly serviceable template already exists” for such a treaty. “In 1988, India and Pakistan, two of the world’s most ferocious adversaries, cobbled together [an adequately detailed] accord” prohibiting attacks on nuclear establishments. He said “this model should be adopted as a universal norm.”

Regardless of the fate of Taiwan’s nuclear energy programs, the risks posed to existing facilities amid heightening cross-strait tensions demands international coordination—coordination that might make room for talks between America and China and a cooling of relations.  https://www.newsweek.com/other-atomic-concern-taiwannuclear-reactors-opinion-1792583

April 9, 2023 Posted by | safety, Taiwan | Leave a comment

Childhood thyroid cancer cases confirmed in the Fukushima Health Management Survey and others

BY CITIZENS’ NUCLEAR INFORMATION CENTER · APRIL 5, 2023  https://cnic.jp/english/?p=6551

Fukushima Prefecture has been implementing thyroid gland examinations for children (born between April 2, 1992 and April 1, 2012) who were living in the prefecture at the time of the earthquake and nuclear disaster. The results are summarized in the table below: [on original]

In addition to the 295 children with thyroid cancer confirmed in the survey (excluding one with benign nodules), 43 other patients were identified outside of the tally in the cancer registry, bringing the total number of children aged 18 or younger with malignant or suspected malignant thyroid cancer who were living in Fukushima Prefecture at the time of the accident to 338. Note that the screening uptake rate at the age of 25 is low. 

Surveys have found thyroid cancer in children at a rate dozens of times higher than normal.

April 9, 2023 Posted by | children, Fukushima continuing | Leave a comment

NMED’s Permit Allows LANL Loopholes for Radioactive Liquid Waste Treatment Facility

April 6th, 2023,  http://nuclearactive.org/

It’s time to break the silence about the permitting of the Radioactive Liquid Waste Treatment Facility at Los Alamos National Laboratory.  Since 1963, the Facility has handled, treated and stored radioactive and hazardous liquid waste generated at the Plutonium Facility, where the triggers, or plutonium pits, for nuclear weapons are fabricated.

The New Mexico Environment Department has refused to regulate the Facility under the New Mexico Hazardous Waste Act even though the law regulates hazardous materials “from cradle to grave.”

In May 2022, for the first time, the Environment Department did permit the Facility, but under a less strict law – the New Mexico Water Quality Act.  It is ground water discharge permit, DP-1132.

This permit provides many loopholes and is totally inappropriate for the Facility and for the construction and operation of two new radioactive liquid waste treatment facilities, all without any public process as required by the Hazardous Waste Act.

Under the Water Quality Act permit, the Department of Energy and National Nuclear Security Administration need only submit the plans and specifications to the Environment Department for review.  Unlike the Hazardous Waste Act, there is no requirement for advance public notice, no public review and comment, and no opportunity for a public hearing.

Another loophole in the Water Quality Act is that it omits the seismic analyses for the new facilities built on volcanic tuff in a seismic zone on the eastern slope of an active volcano, above a sole source regional drinking water aquifer and the Rio Grande.

Again, in contrast to the Hazardous Waste Act, this permit omits analyses of the seismic vulnerability and risk in Los Alamos County and the surrounding counties from Taos to Bernalillo.

Our concerns are not unfounded.  Recall that the proposed Nuclear Facility, as part of the Chemistry and Metallurgy Research Replacement Project, was eventually canceled because of the increasing cost to address the unresolved threats of seismic action within the Pajarito Fault System

CCNS and Honor Our Pueblo Existence (HOPE) have challenged the issuance of DP-1132 before the New Mexico Water Quality Control Commission.  The filings are available at:  https://www.env.nm.gov/opf/docketed-matters/ , scroll down to WQCC 22-21:  Concerned Citizens for Nuclear Safety and Honor Our Pueblo Existence’s Petition for Review of NMED Ground Water Discharge Permit DP-1132.

Break the silence and express your concerns to the New Mexico Water Quality Control Commission at its May 9th meeting.  https://www.env.nm.gov/events-calendar/?trumbaEmbed=date%3D20230501%26index%3D0

Stay tuned to nuclearactive.org and our social media channels.

April 9, 2023 Posted by | USA, wastes | Leave a comment

Current State of Post-Accident Operations at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (Jun. to Dec. 2022)

State of the Plant Fukushima Now – Part 2, BY CITIZENS’ NUCLEAR INFORMATION CENTER APRIL 5, 2023 · By Matsukubo Hajime (CNIC)

The water temperature in the containment vessels and the spent fuel pools (SFPs) shows no great variation despite seasonal temperature changes. The state of releases of Xenon-135 (half-life roughly nine hours), released when uranium fuel undergoes fission, is also unchanged and it can therefore be estimated that the state of the reactors is stable. Further, according to an assessment by TEPCO in December 2022, around 10,000 becquerels per hour (Bq/h) of radioactive materials were being released to the atmosphere from the buildings (Fig.1 on original).

At the same time, decay heat has fallen greatly with the passage of time, and thus the volume of cooling water injected into the reactors has been reduced (falling from 7-10m3 per hour in May 2011 to 1.6-4m3 per hour as of December 2022).

The state of removal of spent nuclear fuel from the SFPs is summarized in Table 1 [0n original]. Spent nuclear fuel removal from Units 3 and 4 has been completed. However, as it has not been possible to remove control rods and other high-dose equipment stored in the SFPs, preparatory work has been underway for removal of this equipment from Unit 3 in the second half of FY2022 and removal from Unit 4 will commence in the second half of FY2024. Further, the removal of this equipment from Unit 3 was due to start from late October 2022, but this has now been rescheduled for early March 2023.

Preparations for the removal of fuel debris are also under way…………………………………..

The Unit 2 reactor core isolation cooling (RCIC) system was operating after the accident and for a further three days, including the time when the tsunami arrived at the plant. Uncovering the reason why it ceased functioning has been an issue, but it is inaccessible even now, after approximately 12 years underground………………………………………..

The changes in the average number of workers onsite per day is shown in Fig. 2 [on original] . As of December 2022, the number of workers was 4,410, about half the number it was at its peak. …………………………………

Contaminated water countermeasures at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (FDNPS) can be broadly divided into three areas: 1) Reduction of groundwater flowing into buildings, 2) Reduction of contaminated water flowing into the sea, and 3) Reduction of the toxicity of contaminated water. The main countermeasures to reduce water inflow into the buildings are, from higher elevations downward, ………………………………………………………

In the reduction of the toxicity of contaminated water, cesium and strontium are removed, and after the removal of impurities using a reverse osmosis (RO) membrane, radionuclides other than tritium are removed by the multi-radionuclide removal equipment…………………………………………

The frozen earth barrier consists of about 1600 30-meter freeze pipes buried in the ground, through which coolant at -30°C is circulated to freeze the surrounding soil. The effectiveness of the frozen earth barrier has been questioned since it was first installed, but since 2019 there have been several coolant leakage incidents.

Concerning the issue of releasing contaminated water into the ocean after ALPS treatment, TEPCO’s policy to release the water was authorized at the 25th Meeting of the Nuclear Regulatory Authority on July 22, and the construction was approved by the governor or Fukushima Prefecture and the mayors of both Okuma Town and Futaba Town in August. At present, construction of the release tunnel is ongoing, and the plan is to complete the construction during the first quarter of 2023. ………………………….. A fund of 30 billion yen has already been established as a measure against “adverse publicity.” Additionally, TV commercials, etc. are also being employed as “actions to foster understanding.” On the same day Chairman Masanobu Sakamoto of the National Federation of Fisheries Cooperative Associations released a statement saying, “We have not altered one little bit our opposition to the oceanic release.”

Meanwhile, Secretary General Henry Puna of the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF), an inter-governmental organization that aims to enhance cooperation among 15 countries and two regions of Oceania, announced in a statement on January 18 that PIF will demand a postponement of releases until it has become possible to confirm the safety of all involved [timetable of events shown on original] more https://cnic.jp/english/?p=6553

April 9, 2023 Posted by | Fukushima continuing, technology | Leave a comment

Three consecutive years of rapidly increasing carbon dioxide emissions.

Record temperatures, devastating floods and superstorms are causing death
and destruction across the planet but humans are failing to cut greenhouse
gas emissions fueling the climate emergency, new US data shows. Atmospheric
levels of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane and nitrous oxide – the
greenhouse gases emitted by human activity that are the most significant
contributors to global heating – continued to increase rapidly during
2022, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(Noaa).

Carbon dioxide levels rose by more than two parts per million (ppm)
for the 11th consecutive year: the highest sustained rate of CO2 increases
since monitoring began 65 years ago. Before 2013, scientists had never
recorded three consecutive years of such high CO2 growth.

 Guardian 6th April 2023

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/apr/06/greenhouse-gas-emissions-noaa-report-us-data

April 9, 2023 Posted by | 2 WORLD, climate change | Leave a comment

Fukushima Now Part 1: Railroading the Contaminated Water Release is Unacceptable!

BY CITIZENS’ NUCLEAR INFORMATION CENTER · APRIL 5, 2023, By Ban Hideyuki (CNIC Co-Director)

The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) and Tokyo Electric Power Holdings (TEPH) had decided on a policy of oceanic release of the contaminated water, which continues to build up at Fukushima Daiichi NPS, from an early stage and have been steadily proceeding with preparatory construction work for the release. This work has been proceeding despite written commitments to the National Federation of Fisheries Cooperative Associations and Fukushima Prefecture Federation of Fisheries Cooperative Associations in August 2015 that “(contaminated water) would not be released into the ocean without their agreement.”

This is the plan for how the release work will proceed. …………………………………………………………………..

This resulted in construction costs of 43 billion yen for the first four years and a release period of 30 years or more, a significant increase from the initial estimate of 3.4 billion yen and 88 months. However, the cost is based on an assessment of 800,000 tons, which differs from the current volume, but nevertheless the assessment that the oceanic release method is “cheap and fast” has been destroyed. Fishermen’s groups passed a special resolution at their general meeting in FY2022 to oppose oceanic releases, and their opposition remains unchanged.

………………………………………………………………….. Securing storage space for high integrity containers is a challenge

Wastewater collected during the ALPS treatment and its pre-treatment stage is stored in polyethylene high integrity containers (HICs). As of December 2022, there were 4,192 containers in storage. To prepare for an increase in wastewater, TEPH plans to expand the storage space by 192 units by June 2025 and a further 192 units by about the middle of 2026………………………………………………

As of June 2021, the Nuclear Regulation Authority had pointed out that there were 31 HICs with absorbed doses that had reached the limit of five mega-grays. That means the limit has been reached sooner than TEPCO had predicted, because, unlike TEPH, TEPCO evaluated absorbed doses from the sludge accumulated at the bottom of the waste effluent HIC. ……………………….  Given that contaminated water will continue to be generated in the future, it is likely that securing storage space will become even more difficult. https://cnic.jp/english/?p=6562

April 9, 2023 Posted by | Fukushima continuing, safety | Leave a comment

Researchers simulate damage from nuclear weapons use in Northeast Asia

 https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20230407_41/ A group of researchers from Japan and other countries have simulated direct casualties and delayed deaths that could be caused by the use of nuclear weapons in Northeast Asia.

Nagasaki University in western Japan and other bodies, including a US research institution, jointly conducted a simulation analysis taking into account nuclear strategies of countries concerned and situation in the region.

The joint research project is aimed at ensuring that nuclear weapons are never used again.

The researchers have looked at five possible cases of nuclear weapons use in Northeast Asia and ran a simulation of what could follow if nuclear weapons are used.

In one case, it is assumed that in the Korean Peninsula, three nuclear weapons are used by North Korea and the United States.

In another case involving two nuclear powers fighting over Taiwan, it models what might happen after a total of 24 nuclear weapons are used, including high-yield bombs.

The researchers have quantified the number of deaths based on an analysis of effects such as heat flow caused by a nuclear explosion and radioactive fallout.

Even if only one nuclear weapon is used, the simulation shows 220,000 people, or about 25 percent of the population of the targeted area, would die within several months.

The use of a large number of nuclear weapons, including high-yield ones, could result in deaths of 2.6 million people.

The researchers also simulated effects of firestorms which are multiple fires caused by heat flow merging over a large area driven by powerful wind forces created by the thermal updraft. They found that firestorms could cause a large number of casualties over a wide area.

Radioactive fallout could reach an extensive area depending on weather conditions. Up to 920,000 people could die of cancer over the course of a few decades.

Professor Suzuki Tatsujiro at Nagasaki University’s Research Center for Nuclear Weapons Abolition warns that misunderstanding and a lack of communication between rival nations could lead to the use of nuclear weapons. He says that even if only one is used, it would inevitably cause devastating damage.

Suzuki urges leaders of nuclear powers to face the potential risks and review their defense strategies that rely on nuclear deterrence.

April 9, 2023 Posted by | ASIA, weapons and war | Leave a comment

European war games: 9,000 U.S. troops, 17,000 from 26 NATO allies, partners in 10 nations — Anti-bellum

The four partner nations involved are Bosnia, Georgia, Kosovo (pseudo-nation) and Moldova, all with territorial disputes that could erupt into war at any moment. ==== U.S. Department of DefenseApril 5, 2023 Multinational Exercise Defender 23 Kicks Off This Month in Europe Nearly 9,000 American troops are expected to participate in the Defender 23 exercise which […]

European war games: 9,000 U.S. troops, 17,000 from 26 NATO allies, partners in 10 nations — Anti-bellum

April 9, 2023 Posted by | Uncategorized | Leave a comment

B1 US Navy sends nuclear-powered guided-missile submarine to Middle East

The US Navy has deployed a guided-missile submarine capable of carrying up to 154 Tomahawk missiles to the Middle East, a spokesman said Saturday.

The Navy rarely acknowledges the location or deployment of submarines. Cmdr. Timothy Hawkins, a spokesman for the 5th Fleet based in the Gulf nation of Bahrain, declined to comment on the submarine’s mission or what had prompted the deployment……………………………………… more https://english.alarabiya.net/News/gulf/2023/04/08/US-Navy-sends-nuclear-powered-guided-missile-submarine-to-Middle-East-Statement

April 9, 2023 Posted by | MIDDLE EAST, weapons and war | Leave a comment

India and Pakistan Must Negotiate Nuclear Responsibilities

South Asia Voices, by Ladhu R. Choudhary, April 7, 2023

In 2019, while addressing an election rally, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi stated a fiery public remark, “every other day they [Pakistan] used to say ‘we have nuclear button, we have nuclear button.’ What do we have then? Have we kept it for Diwali (a mega Indian festival celebrated with extensive use of firecrackers)?” His statement is just one example of India and Pakistan’s exaggerated rhetoric around their nuclear rivalry.

…………………………………………… responsible nuclear states should strategize to stigmatize the bomb. Most importantly, these statements undermine the essential ingredients of nuclear responsibilities. 

Nuclear responsibilities are defined as a set of extraordinary obligations and reasoning of the nuclear weapon states to exercise restraint in nuclear posturing and proliferation activities to avoid nuclear crises and avert a nuclear arms race. A nuclear responsibilities framework demands that states prioritize behaviors that reinforce credible deterrence postures and doctrines, reduce nuclear risks, and create the conditions for disarmament. Given the catastrophic risks of escalation, the political leadership in both India and Pakistan should refrain from acts of nuclear irresponsibility and demonstrate their respect for nuclear safety and security norms.

………………………………………………. Existing South Asian Nuclear Culture Lacks Nuclear Responsibilities

When politicians in India and Pakistan remind one another of the nuclear button and equate nuclear weapons with Diwali firecrackers, they reinforce South Asian atomic culture. This atomic culture has facilitated the acquisition of nuclear technology with chauvinistic pride and a symbol of supreme power for political independence. It has limited space for negotiating potential threats of nuclear exchanges and shared responsibilities of hostile SNW. For instance, New Delhi and Islamabad have not been able to build robust institutional arrangements for Nuclear Confidence Building Measures (NCBMs). 

India and Pakistan need a better cooperation record for joint nuclear doctrine formulations and identifying implementation procedures. Furthermore, their ambiguous doctrines, postures, and accidents may escalate nuclear instability. ……………………………… more https://southasianvoices.org/india-and-pakistan-must-negotiate-nuclear-responsibilities/

April 9, 2023 Posted by | India, Pakistan, politics international | Leave a comment