Russia’s Antiquated Nuclear Warning System Jeopardizes Us All
As the war in Ukraine’s pits Russia against the West, it’s time to look at Moscow’s weak satellite systems, which raise the chances of nuclear conflict. by David K. Shipler
Since Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a heightened nuclear alert level, much of the world has worried that he might go nuclear in his war against Ukraine. But there is another concern: a false alarm from Russian early-warning systems, which experts believe are dangerously vulnerable to errors.
The risk of a catastrophic mistake has been a threat since the outset of the nuclear age, but miscalculation becomes more likely in a period of heightened Russian-American tension. Leaders would have only minutes to make fateful decisions, so each side needs to be able to “see” clearly whether the other has launched missiles before retaliating. Ambiguity in a moment of “crisis perception,” the Rand Corporation has noted, can spark “conflict when one nation misinterprets an event (such as a training exercise, a weather phenomenon, or a malfunction) as an indicator of a nuclear attack.”
Russia and the United States are the most heavily armed of the nine nuclear powers, which include China, France, the United Kingdom, North Korea, Pakistan, India, and Israel. (Iran is poised to join the club.) But only the U.S. has comprehensive surveillance of the globe, provided by three active geosynchronous satellites, with two in reserve, whose infrared receptors can spot missile plumes. That data is supplemented by radar, which gives the U.S. the capacity to double-check that a launch has actually occurred.
Specialists call this verification by both satellite and radar “dual phenomenology.” The Russians don’t have it, at least not reliably. They lack adequate space-based monitoring to supplement their radar.
What they have is a “terrible and dangerous technology shortfall,” according to Theodore Postol, a professor of science, technology, and national security policy at MIT and a former scientific adviser to the chief of naval operations……………………… https://washingtonmonthly.com/2022/04/29/russias-antiquated-nuclear-warning-system-jeopardizes-us-all/
U.S. sees no threat of Russia using nuclear weapons despite rhetoric- official
WASHINGTON, April 29 (Reuters) – The United States does not believe that there is a threat of Russia using nuclear weapons despite a recent escalation in Moscow’s rhetoric, a senior U.S. defense official said on Friday.,,,,,
Reporting by Idrees Ali and Phil Stewart Editing by Frances Kerry We continue to monitor their nuclear capabilities every day the best we can and we do not assess that there is a threat of the use of nuclear weapons and no threat to NATO territory,” the official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told reporters.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Monday the West should not underestimate the elevated risks of nuclear conflict over Ukraine. read more
Russia said earlier this month that it plans to deploy its newly tested Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missiles, capable of mounting nuclear strikes against the United States, ………………. https://www.reuters.com/world/us-sees-no-threat-russia-using-nuclear-weapons-despite-rhetoric-official-2022-04-29/
Pakistan, India reel under intense heat wave
Market Screener, By Jibran Ahmad and Sumit Khanna, 29 Apr 22,
PESHAWAR, Pakistan/AHMEDABAD,India (Reuters) -Pakistan issued a heat warning after the hottest March in 61 years while in parts of neighbouring India schools were shut and streets deserted as an intense heave wave on Friday showed no signs of abating.
Pakistan’s Federal Minister for Climate Change, Sherry Rehman, urged the federal and provincial governments to take precautionary measures to manage the intense heat wave, which touched highs of 47 degrees Celsius (116.6 Fahrenheit) in parts of the country.
“South Asia, particularly India and Pakistan are faced with what has been a record-breaking heatwave. It started in early April and continues to leave the people gasping in whatever shade they find,” Rehman said in a statement.
Temperatures were predicted to rise by 6 to 8 degrees Celsius above average temperatures after the hottest March on record since 1961, she said.
More than a billion people are at risk of heat-related impacts in the region, scientists have warned, linking the early onset of an intense summer to climate change. For the first time in decades, Pakistan had gone from winter to summer without the spring season, Rehman said.
The government has also told provincial disaster management authorities to prepare urgently for the risk of flash-flooding in northern mountainous provinces due to rapid glacial melting, Rehman said.
Glaciers in the Himalaya, Hindu Kush and Karkoram mountain ranges have melted rapidly, creating thousand of glacial lakes in northern Pakistan, around 30 of which were at risk of sudden hazardous flooding, the climate change ministry said, adding around 7 million people were vulnerable.
A senior scientist at the India Meteorological Department said https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1519938880824176641?s=20&t=NgygE8RS-D4wfM-OJxp9Ew on Friday heat conditions would persist for at least the next three days, but that temperatures would fall after the arrival of monsoons, expected in some parts by May.
The health problems triggered by the heatwave were posing a bigger worry than the expected fourth wave of COVID-19, doctors in India said.
“We are getting many patients who have suffered heatstroke or other heat-related problems,” said Mona Desai, former president of Ahmedabad Medical Association in the western Indian state of Gujarat.
She said that 60-70% of the patients were school-aged complaining of vomiting, diarrhoea, abdominal colic, weakness and other symptoms.
Roads were deserted in Bhubaneshwar, in India’s eastern state of Odisha, where schools have been shut, while neighbouring West Bengal advanced the school summer break by a few days.
Delhi sweltering under extreme heat, electricity shortage
| India is facing the worst electricity shortage in more than six years as Delhi saw its hottest April in 12 years on Thursday at a maximum of 43.5C. The temperatures in the national capital are predicted to linger around 44C with peak summer heat still to come before the cool monsoon rains in June. The extreme heat parching across large swathes of south Asia this week has also prompted health officials in the western state of Gujarat to take measures, as they braced for a potential spike in patients. Meanwhile, the leap in power demand has left India scrambling for coal, with inventories running lowest pre-summer levels in at least nine years. Several states including Rajasthan and Haryana in the north and Andhra Pradesh in the south observed the worst power cuts in over six years as the government struggled to manage surging power demands. Independent 29th April 2022 https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/india-heatwave-2022-delhi-latest-b2068112.html |
Climate change ‘already’ raising risk of virus spread between mammals
Mammals forced to move to cooler climes amid global warming are
“already” spreading their viruses further – with “undoubtable”
impacts for human health, a new study says. The research, published in
Nature, uses modelling to map how climate change could shift the geographic
ranges of 3,100 mammals species and the viruses they carry by 2070.
It finds that climate change is increasingly driving new encounters between
mammal species, raising the risk of novel disease spread. The world’s
“biodiversity hotspots” and densely populated parts of Asia and Africa
are most likely to be affected. The findings suggest that climate change
could “easily become the dominant [human] driver” of cross-species
virus transmission by 2070, the authors say.
Carbon Brief 28th April 2022
Australia, US and China slammed for ignoring “real” climate threat in Pacific — RenewEconomy
Former Pacific Island leaders tell Australia, China and US that the biggest security threat in the Pacific is from climate change. The post Australia, US and China slammed for ignoring “real” climate threat in Pacific appeared first on RenewEconomy.
Australia, US and China slammed for ignoring “real” climate threat in Pacific — RenewEconomy
April 29 Energy News — geoharvey
Opinion: ¶ “Should People Get Rid Of Their Garden Lawns?” • Many of us create or maintain lawns in our gardens without giving it a second thought. But could these innocent patches of greenery be a colossal waste of space? They are relatively easy and cheap to maintain, but there are many more environmentally friendly […]
April 29 Energy News — geoharvey
Open Letter ~ Cleanup of Chalk River radioactive wastes — Concerned Citizens of Renfrew County and Area
April 29, 2022 Dear Mayors, Reeves and Councillors of Renfrew County and the City of Pembroke, Elected officials in the Ottawa Valley have been lobbied to support the “NSDF,” the giant Chalk River nuclear waste landfill for one million tonnes of radioactive and hazardous waste. The final licensing hearing for the facility begins on May 30, 2021. Chalk […]
Open Letter ~ Cleanup of Chalk River radioactive wastes — Concerned Citizens of Renfrew County and Area
Concerns about commercial wastes destined for disposal in the Chalk River Mound — Concerned Citizens of Renfrew County and Area
If the license to build it is approved, large quantities of Cobalt-60 and Tritium from commercial sources will be disposed of in the Chalk River Mound. Chalk River Laboratories, a publicly owned “research” facility, is Canada’s only commercial radioactive waste STORAGE facility. There are many companies shipping wastes to Chalk River. A partial list for […]
Concerns about commercial wastes destined for disposal in the Chalk River Mound — Concerned Citizens of Renfrew County and Area
International Atomic Energy Agency very concerned at dangers at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear complex.
Atomic agency: Danger signs at ‘occupied’ nuclear site in Ukraine
Rafael Grossi tells AP the Zaporizhzhia facility requires repairs and the current situation there is ‘not sustainable’. Aljazeera,
The International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) director-general says the level of safety at Europe’s largest nuclear plant, which is currently under Russian military occupation in Ukraine, is like a “red light blinking” as his organisation tries in vain to gain access to the site.
Rafael Grossi said that the IAEA needs access to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine so its inspectors can, among other things, reestablish the site’s connections with the Vienna-based headquarters of the UN agency.
Ukraine’s 15 nuclear reactors gives it one of the largest nuclear power capacities in the world, and Russia’s invasion has essentially turned parts of country into a nuclear minefield.
Again and again since the invasion, nuclear experts have watched in alarm as Russian forces have come uncomfortably close to multiple nuclear plants in Ukraine.
Grossi said the Zaporizhzhia plant requires repairs.
“There are two units that are active, in active operation … others that are in repairs or in cool down. And there are some activities, technical activities and also inspection activities that need to be performed,” Grossi said.
“So the situation as I have described it, and I would repeat it today, is not sustainable as it is,” he said.
“So this is a pending issue. This is a red light blinking.”…………
The IAEA chief said he is continuing to press Russia’s government for access to the Zaporizhzhia plant………
“There cannot be any military action in or around a nuclear power plant,” Grossi said, adding that he has appealed to Russia about this.
“This is unprecedented to have a war unfolding amidst one of the world’s largest nuclear infrastructures, which, of course, makes for a number of fragile or weak points that could be, of course, exploited wittingly or unwittingly,” he added.
“So this requires a lot of activity on our side and cooperation. Cooperation from the Russian side. Understanding from the Ukrainian side so that we can avoid an accident.”…………..
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, along with US and European support for Ukraine in the conflict, have increased tensions between Russia and the West, but it’s “imperative for us to look for common denominators in spite of these difficulties”, Grossi said.
“We cannot afford to stop. We have to continue. It’s in the world’s interest,” he said of global nuclear safety. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/4/27/un-nuke-chief-wants-ukraine-zaporizhzhia-plant
Despite deteriorating situation, Ukrainian parliament still insisting on NATO accession
RT, https://www.sott.net/article/467169-Despite-deteriorating-situation-Ukrainian-parliament-still-insisting-on-NATO-accession Tue, 26 Apr 2022 The Rada’s chair says accession to the military alliance is Ukraine’s “prospective vision of its future”
The Ukrainian parliament will not vote to remove the passage about the country’s ambition to join NATO from the constitution, the Rada’s chairman, Ruslan Stefanchuk, has revealed.
n an interview with Ukrainian media outlet Ukrainska Pravda published on Monday, Stefanchuk was asked whether Ukrainian lawmakers were going to amend the country’s constitution with respect to Kiev’s ambition to become a NATO member state. The official replied in the negative, adding that “changing the constitution is not an end in itself.” He went on to say that just because some changes are made does not necessarily mean that they have an effect in real life. Stefanchuk warned against “declaratory norms.
The official emphasized that at this point the Ukrainian authorities’ main focus is on ensuring the security of each and every Ukrainian citizen. “Real guarantees are important to us,” Stefanchuk noted.
“For me as a representative of the political leadership of the state precisely this is a priority, so that people no longer die and pay with their lives for the European dream, for the dream of security and the rest,” the Rada’s chairman said.
However, Kiev would not settle for just any kind of guarantees, according to Stefanchuk, who cited the 1994 Budapest Memorandum as an example of empty promises that have failed to materialize. He called for a well-defined agreement which would be able to put Ukraine at ease.
Going back to “what is written in our constitution regarding NATO and the EU,” Stefanchuk described accession to the two organizations as Ukraine’s “prospective vision of its future.”
On March 29, during the last in-person meeting between the Ukrainian and Russian negotiators in Istanbul, Kiev proposed penning an international agreement on security guarantees for Ukraine.
Ten days prior, Stefanchuk indicated that he did not rule out removing the passage on NATO membership from Ukraine’s constitution, depending on “what path the negotiators will take.” The official added that the Rada could start looking for a “model that will either not contradict the constitution or we will change the constitution in this respect.”
The amendment in question, which was added to the Ukrainian constitution back in February 2019, obliges the country’s government to stick to the goal of NATO membership, with the president being the senior guarantor.
Russia attacked the neighboring state in late February, following Ukraine’s failure to implement the terms of the Minsk agreements, first signed in 2014, and Moscow’s eventual recognition of the Donbass republics of Donetsk and Lugansk. The German and French brokered protocols were designed to give the breakaway regions special status within the Ukrainian state. The Kremlin has since demanded that Ukraine officially declare itself a neutral country that will never join the US-led NATO military bloc. Kiev insists the Russian offensive was completely unprovoked and has denied claims it was planning to retake the two republics by force. AT TOP https://www.sott.net/article/467169-Despite-deteriorating-situation-Ukrainian-parliament-still-insisting-on-NATO-accession
The 1983 Military Drill That Nearly Sparked Nuclear War With the Soviets
Fearful that the Able Archer 83 exercise was a cover for a NATO nuclear strike, the U.S.S.R. readied its own weapons for launch
Smithsonian, Francine Uenuma, History CorrespondentApril 27, 2022 In November 1983, during a particularly tense period in the Cold War, Soviet observers spotted planes carrying what appeared to be warheads taxiing out of their NATO hangars. Shortly after, command centers for the NATO military alliance exchanged a flurry of communication, and, after receiving reports that their Soviet adversaries had used chemical weapons, the United States decided to intensify readiness to DEFCON 1—the highest of the nuclear threat categories, surpassing the DEFCON 2 alert declared at the height of the Cuban Missile Crisis two decades prior. Concerned about a preemptive strike, Soviet forces prepared their nuclear weapons for launch.
There was just one problem. None of the NATO escalation was real—at least, not in the minds of the Western forces participating in the Able Archer 83 war game.
A variation of an annual military training exercise, the scenario started with a change in Soviet leadership, heightened proxy rivalries and the Soviets’ invasion of several European countries. Lasting five days, it culminated in NATO resorting to the use of nuclear weapons. Soviet intelligence watched the event with special interest, suspicious that the U.S. might carry out a nuclear strike under the guise of a drill. The realism of Able Archer was ironically effective: It was designed to simulate the start of a nuclear war, and many argue that it almost did.
“In response to this exercise, the Soviets readied their forces, including their nuclear forces, in a way that scared NATO decision makers eventually all the way up to President [Ronald] Reagan,” says Nate Jones, author of Able Archer 83: The Secret History of the NATO Exercise That Almost Triggered Nuclear War and a senior fellow at the National Security Archive.
Perhaps most concerning is that the danger was largely unknown and overlooked, both during the exercise and throughout that precarious year, when changes in leadership and an acceleration in the nuclear arms race ratcheted up tensions between the two superpowers. A since-declassified 1990 report by the President’s Foreign Intelligence Review Board (PFIAB) concluded, “In 1983 we may have inadvertently placed our relations with the Soviet Union on a hair trigger.”
Almost 40 years later, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has evoked comparisons with the Cold War, particularly when it comes to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s vaguely worded threats. At the onset of the war, Putin warned of “consequences you have never seen”—a declaration interpreted in some quarters as a nod to his country’s nuclear capabilities. More recently, U.S. President Joe Biden’s announcement of new weapons for Ukraine elicited an admonition from Moscow about “unpredictable consequences.” Biden has declined to send American troops and cautioned that “direct confrontation between NATO and Russia is World War III.”………………………………………
The Cold War is now three decades in the rearview mirror, and the invasion of Ukraine is a far cry from a fictional exercise. But while history doesn’t necessarily repeat itself, it does mutate—and once again, nuclear-tinged rhetoric is making headlines.
Geist considers the nuclear threat low risk at present but acknowledges that the mere specter of it still carries great influence. “It’s framing what is considered possible for basically all … foreign governments, including our own,” he says. “The idea of direct intervention would be much more seriously considered against a non-nuclear power.”
Common to this or any other chapter of the post-World War II nuclear world is the fact that no nuclear threat, whether vague or explicit, comes without a degree of risk. As Jones point out, “The danger of brinksmanship”—a foreign policy practice that pushes parties to the edge of confrontation—“is it’s easier than we think for one side to fall into the brink.” https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/the-1983-military-drill-that-nearly-sparked-nuclear-war-with-the-soviets-180979980/
Effort to stop banks financing nuclear weapons industry
PNC shareholders defeat proposal on nuclear weapons lending for second time
PATRICIA SABATINI, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, 27 Apr 22,
Like the threat of nuclear war, the “Stop Banking the Bomb” campaign aimed at getting banks to stop financing companies involved in the nuclear weapons industry refuses to go away.
For the second year in a row, a proposal backed by a group opposed to such financing was defeated at PNC Financial Services Group’s annual shareholders meeting Wednesday.
Presented by the Sisters of St. Joseph of Brentwood in New York, the proposal asked that Pittsburgh-based PNC issue a report on the risks associated with lending to companies involved in making nuclear weapons.
The campaign has been targeting the bank for several years, demonstrating outside of PNC offices and shareholder meetings.
“PNC faces significant legal, financial and reputational risks if it continues to be linked to the nuclear weapons industry,” according to the proposal.
In addition, it said, the bank has a moral responsibility to address “adverse human rights impacts that it may cause, contribute to, or be directly linked to its business.”
PNC’s board recommended voting against the proposal, saying a review of the bank’s lending business concluded it did not pose a “material credit, legal or reputational risk to PNC,” and was properly vetted for potential environmental and human rights risks……………………
The proposal was defeated by a majority of shareholders. The exact vote count was not immediately available. ………………. https://www.post-gazette.com/business/pittsburgh-company-news/2022/04/27/pnc-financial-services-group-shareholders-nuclear-weapons-lending-banking-bomb/stories/202204270137
Net zero by 2050 will hit a major timing problem technology can’t solve. We need to talk about cutting consumption
Mark Diesendorf
Many climate activists, scientists, engineers and politicians are trying to reassure us the climate crisis can be solved rapidly without any changes to lifestyle, society or the economy.
Clean” Nuclear is a Fraudulent Scam
Clean” Nuclear is a Fraudulent Scam, Trading Standards Told by
Hundreds on Anniversary of Chernobyl Disaster. Hundreds of people have
signed a PETITION calling on Trading Standards to enforce removal of the
word “Clean” from the UK’s nuclear fuel manufacturing plant.
Cumbriannuclear safety group Radiation Free Lakeland started the petition to
counter the “clean” claims of the nuclear industry. The petition will
be delivered to Trading Standards at Lancashire County Council on the
anniversary of the 1986 Chernobyl disaster on 26th April. The nuclear fuel
factory is three miles from Preston City Centre and in what campaigners
call a “blatant fraud” has in the last couple of years been calling
itself the “Clean Energy Technology Park (CETP).
Radiation Free Lakeland 26th April 2022
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