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North Korea’s new nuclear gambit and the fate of denuclearisation, East Asia Forum, 22 March 2021  Author: Evans JR Revere, BrookingsIn March 2012, North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong-ho told a group of US experts and former officials that North Korea would not denuclearise until the United States removed its ‘threat’. He defined this as the US–South Korea alliance, the presence of US troops in South Korea, and the US nuclear umbrella defending South Korea and Japan.

‘If you remove the threat’, Ri said, ‘we will feel more secure, and in 10 or 20 years we will be able to consider denuclearisation’. ‘In the meantime,’ he declared, ‘we can sit down and engage in arms control talks as one nuclear power with another’.

Ri’s remarks provided valuable insight into North Korea’s strategy and goals at the time. Today, his words shed light on why North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has doubled down on nuclear and ballistic missile programs.

Faced with a new US president whose North Korea policy remains unclear, Kim Jong-un has decided to pre-empt the outcome of the ongoing US policy review by ending all prospects of denuclearisation and expanding his nuclear and missile capabilities instead. In doing so, Kim hopes to compel Washington to engage in ‘arms control talks’ if it hopes to slow the North’s nuclear program.

Kim’s gambit to change the main topic of US–North Korea dialogue from denuclearisation to arms control was hiding in plain sight in his January 2021 address to the Korean Workers Party Congress. He described North Korea’s nuclear weapons development as the nation’s ‘strategic and predominant goal’ and an ‘exploit of greatest significance in the history of the Korean nation’. Declaring North Korea a ‘responsible nuclear weapons state’, Kim’s message was that the regime is now a permanent nuclear power and Washington must deal with it as such.

No less important was Kim’s announcement of a plan to enhance his nuclear and missile arsenals by developing ‘ultramodern tactical nuclear weapons’, multiple-warhead missiles and solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missiles. Kim’s remarks signalled his determination to make a dangerous threat even more potent.

Much has been said about the Biden administration’s ongoing North Korea policy review. But Kim Jong-un’s remarks to the Party Congress suggest Pyongyang has conducted its own review, the result of which will be a major challenge for a new US administration still finding its feet…………… https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2021/03/22/north-koreas-new-nuclear-gambit-and-the-fate-of-denuclearisation/