nuclear-news

‘Needs to be carefully monitored’: Heightened risk of nuclear confrontation between the US and China, SMH, By Anthony Galloway, September 29, 2020, The risk of a nuclear confrontation between the United States and China is growing, as Beijing acquires new weapons allowing it to potentially strike its adversaries first.As both countries enter into a new period of intense strategic competition, there is a small risk of deliberate nuclear use and a bigger risk of either the US or China inadvertently using nuclear weapons against the other.

This could occur if one of the countries degrades the other’s nuclear arsenal using conventional weapons, whether by accident or collateral damage, causing that nation to respond with nuclear weapons.

A new report by the United States Studies Centre says a US conventional strike or cyber attack disabling China’s ability to launch conventional ballistic missiles could accidentally damage its nuclear missiles. Beijing could then see this attack as a prelude to disarming its nuclear weapons, and choose to use them first before they were further degraded.

Alternatively, China could launch a space attack against US satellites, or a cyber attack, to interfere with US missile defences, sparking a US nuclear counter-attack.

China’s nuclear strategy over recent decades has focused on deterring nuclear threats, but it has been acquiring new capabilities – such as launchers for its DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missile – that could enable a shift to a nuclear “first-use” strategy.

The new report by the centre’s non-resident fellow Fiona Cunningham has called for Australia and other countries to urge the US and China back to arms control talks. ……….

“China’s nuclear strategy still looks quite different from countries that explicitly threaten first-use like Pakistan, or don’t rule out the option of using nuclear weapons first, like the United States.”……..

The lower stakes for the United States and China in a South China Sea confrontation, and low intensity with which a conflict could start, would give both countries more opportunities to end a confrontation before it got to the point of nuclear threats or use.” https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/needs-to-be-carefully-monitored-heightened-risk-of-nuclear-confrontation-between-the-us-and-china-20200928-p55zwp.html