We underestimate the long term effects of the pandemic
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Bad News about the Pandemic: We’re Not Getting Back to Normal Any Time Soon
Thinking that we might is an example of what psychologists call “anchoring bias”, Scientific American , By Gleb Tsipursky on July 18, 2020 “……….. we tend to vastly underestimate both the possibility and impact of a disaster striking us. Moreover, we will rush to get back to normal even when we should be preparing for the aftershocks or continuation of the disaster.We know that the best way to deal with COVID-19 conclusively involves finding a vaccine. It usually takes a decade or more to develop one, as a result of the high costs of research and the safety regulations around the approval process. Fortunately, government, market and philanthropic forces have combined to channel extensive funding toward developing vaccines and minimizing the approval process standards to the bare minimum needed to ensure safety and effectiveness. Still, while over a hundred organizations launched projects to develop vaccines, and several have created a viable prototype, it will take many months for the vaccine to go through human trials. In the ideal scenario, if one of the first several vaccines does successfully make it through trials and proves highly effective without any unacceptable side effects—a very big if—we might have a vaccine approved for widespread use by summer of 2021. What then? Well, we need to mass-produce the vaccine, to distribute it to the most vulnerable among us, and eventually to give it to everyone. Producing enough vaccine for only, say, the 100 million most vulnerable Americans would itself take a few months. You also have the obstacle of distributing it and actually vaccinating people, as well as dealing with anti-vaxxer sentiments, so add another few months. That brings us into the start of 2022 on a highly optimistic timeline. But given the fact that only a very small percentage of all vaccines make it through the trials, we shouldn’t expect that we’ll get so wonderfully lucky, considering the possibilities of either unacceptable side effects or insufficient effectiveness. More realistically, it might be not until 2023–24 when we get a sufficiently safe and effective vaccine. Now, this information was known as early as February. However, the normalcy bias makes it very difficult for us to imagine that our world can turn upside down so quickly. In early 2020, it was extremely uncomfortable for political and business leaders, and ordinary citizens, to even begin to imagine that it wouldn’t be until early 2022—and more realistically 2024–25—that we could, with incredible luck, expect to vanquish COVID-19. This is despite clear statements from the best scientific experts to that effect……… we won’t get anywhere if we don’t face the facts. We need to acknowledge that COVID-19 fundamentally disrupted our world, turning it upside down in a few short weeks in February and March 2020. Regrettably, it will not disappear; believing that it will helped get us mired so deep in this mess, making the U.S. outbreak one of the worst in the world in terms of deaths per capita. Next, we need to understand and evaluate where each of us has fallen into these biases, and to evaluate the pain we cause ourselves by doing so. Then, we need to consider the long-term impacts realistically, and plan for a scenario that addresses the likelihood of major disruptions. So, prepare to deal with waves of restrictions and loosenings for the long haul, especially as it’s likely that the coronavirus will get worse in the fall, as weather gets colder and we spend more time indoors. Remember, even if you made some bad decisions in the past, you always have the opportunity to make better decisions going forward to survive and thrive through the pandemic. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/bad-news-about-the-pandemic-were-not-getting-back-to-normal-any-time-soon/ |
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Global heating will mean that many areas become too hot for human activities
In one manifestation of a warming planet billions of people could soon be exposed to such high levels of heat that spending longer periods outdoors during sweltering summer months could prove fatal.
Parts of the planet, such as the Sahara desert, are already largely unsuitable for people other than the hardiest souls. Yet other regions with currently temperate climates could also become too hot for much of the year. Once levels of heat stress rise to a certain threshold in these areas millions of people could suffer serious health effects, experts warn.
Across much of the planet, in other words, a warmer climate “will pose greater risk to human health,” says Tom Matthews, a climate scientist at Loughborough University in the United Kingdom. “[W]e can say we are universally creeping close to this magic threshold of 35°C,” he elucidates. “It looks like, in some cases for a brief period of the day, we have exceeded this value.”
Matthews has reached this conclusion after analyzing weather station data from around the world with his colleagues. What they have found is a marked increase in the recurrence of so-called wet bulb (WB) temperatures (which is a measurement of heat and humidity taken together) that exceed limits we can still safely handle.
Beyond a WB threshold of 35°C, our bodies can no longer cool themselves by sweating in humid weather. Just think of staying in a sauna for too long. As a result, we are likely to experience heat stroke and organ failure because the core temperature of out bodies remains too high. Yet since 1979 the frequency of dangerous heatwaves have doubled in countries such as India, Pakistan, parts of the United States and Mexico.
Even across much of Europe last summer thousands of people succumbed to extreme heat during long spells of unusual heat. Not only will such deadly heatwaves become more common but they will also continue to impact more and more people across an ever larger area, scientists say.
According to a new study, in just a couple of generations (in half a century) up to 3.5 billion people could find themselves living in areas that are too hot for humans throughout much of the year.
At present the planet seems to be on track for a warming of 3°C on average by the end of the century, which will make much of the planet uninhabitable for humans. Because land areas are warming faster than the oceans, temperatures in certain parts of the world could rise by as much as 7.5°C by 2070. The most-affected regions will include Sub-Saharan Africa, South America, Southeast Asia, Arabian Peninsula, the Indian subcontinent and Australia.
Prolonged droughts and other weather extremes could make things even worse for people living in these areas. “Absent climate mitigation or migration, a substantial part of humanity will be exposed to mean annual temperatures warmer than nearly anywhere today,” the scientists behind the study warn.
Fukushima may have scattered plutonium widely
Fukushima may have scattered plutonium widely, Physics World 20 Jul 2020 Tiny fragments of plutonium may have been carried more than 200 km by caesium particles released following the meltdown at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in Japan in 2011. So says an international group of scientists that has made detailed studies of soil samples at sites close to the damaged reactors. The researchers say the findings shed new light on conditions inside the sealed-off reactors and should aid the plant’s decommissioning……..
Mapping plutonium spread
To date, plutonium from the accident has been detected as far as 50 km from the damaged reactors. Researchers had previously thought that this plutonium, like the caesium, was released after evaporating from the fuel. But the new analysis instead points to some of it having escaped from the stricken plant in particulate form within fragments of fuel “captured” by the CsMPs…….
Implications for decommissioning
The researchers note that previous studies have shown that plutonium and caesium are distributed differently in the extended area around Fukushima, which suggests that not all CsMPs contain plutonium. However, they say that the fact plutonium is found in some of these particles implies that it could have been transported as far afield as the caesium – up to 230 km from the Fukushima plant.
As regards any threat to health, they note that radioactivity levels of the emitted plutonium are comparable with global counts from nuclear weapons tests. Such low concentrations, they say, “may not have significant health effects”, but they add that if the plutonium were ingested, the isotopes that make it up could yield quite high effective doses.
With radiation levels still too high for humans to enter the damaged reactors, the researchers argue that the fuel fragments they have uncovered provide precious direct information on what happened during the meltdown and the current state of the fuel debris. In particular, Utsunomiya points out that the composition of the debris, just like that of normal nuclear fuel, varies on the very smallest scales. This information, he says, will be vital when it comes to decommissioning the reactors safely, given the potential risk of inhaling dust particles containing uranium or plutonium.
The research is reported in Science of the Total Environment. https://physicsworld.com/a/fukushima-may-have-scattered-plutonium-widely/
Funding for nuclear weapons tests is blocked in U.S. Congress
House Democrats vote to block funding for nuclear weapons tests, Defense News,
by: Joe Gould 21 July 20, WASHINGTON ― No funding would be available for live nuclear weapons testing under an amendment the House adopted to its version of the annual defense policy bill.
The amendment from Rep. Ben McAdams, D-Utah, was adopted, 227-179, in a mostly party-line vote. The House is expected Tuesday to vote to pass the 2021 National Defense Authorization Act.
The amendment marks the second rebuke of the Trump administration amid reports it’s mulling a resumption of nuclear weapons testing. The House Appropriations Committee passed a similar ban earlier this month.
The amendment’s adoption will likely make it harder for House Republicans to vote for the House’s FY21 NDAA, and it likely sets up a fight with the Republican-controlled SASC when leaders of both panels reconcile their versions of the bill.
The FY21NDAA was voted out of the House Armed Services Committee on a bipartisan 56-0 vote earlier this month.
“Explosive nuclear testing is not necessary to ensure our stockpile remains safe and nothing in this amendment would change that,” McAdams said in a floor speech ahead of the vote. “Explosive nuclear testing causes irreparable harm to human health and to our environment. and jeopardizes the U.S. leadership role on nuclear nonproliferation.” ………
The House, separately, adopted an amendment that would give the energy secretary a stronger hand in setting nuclear policy by making him co-chair, alongside the defense secretary, of the Nuclear Weapons Council. The council is charged with the coordinating policy to manage the existing nuclear weapons stockpile and plan future nuclear deterrents.
The amendment, from House Energy and Commerce Committee ranking member Greg Walden, R-Ore., is to “to provide Cabinet-level visibility and accountability of our nuclear deterrent and the NWC budget process,” according to an amendment summary. Under current law, DoD’s undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment chairs the council.
It was adopted in larger package of amendments, approved by a bipartisan 336-71.
It’s the latest move in a running battle over who controls the nuclear weapons budget submission. SASC’s proposed version of the FY21 NDAA would allow the council to edit the budget request after the Energy Department crafts it and before the request is submitted to the White House budget office. But House appropriators earlier this month approved a spending bill that would bar such a move. https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2020/07/20/house-democrats-block-funding-for-nuclear-weapons-tests/
North Korea continues policy -no denuclearization talks until the US withdraws its “hostile policy.
This nuanced treatment of nuclear weapons in CMC meeting coverage is consistent with recent statements by North Korean officials, which indicated denuclearization is off the table for now and North Korea will proceed with its weapons development to cope with US “long-term threats.”…….
While Kim Yo Jong’s July 10 press statement seemed more conciliatory in tone than the previous Foreign Ministry statements, the bottom line was consistent with North Korea’s position since the Stockholm talks in October 2019: there will be no denuclearization talks until the US withdraws its “hostile policy.”[9] Kim added that North Korea must plan for “long-term threats” from the US and “strengthen and steadily increase our practical capabilities,” which implied going ahead with North Korea’s weapons development and production plan. https://www.38north.org/2020/07/cmc072020/
Britain’s Conservatives anxious to review UK’s nuclear build co-operation with China
Tory hawks press button on nuclear power battle with China, After Huawei, energy sector looks set to be next flashpoint in Sino-British relations, Ft.com, Jim Pickard, Daniel Thomas and Nathalie Thomas-20 July 20
CGN, which has already invested £3.8bn in the UK nuclear sector, is a junior funding partner for the new Hinkley Point power station in Somerset being built by France’s EDF, and is also involved with the French company’s other proposed plant at Sizewell in Suffolk.
Global surge in Covid-19 infections, over 600.000 deaths
Coronavirus deaths top 600,000 worldwide as pandemic infections surge. 9 news, By Associated Press Jul 20, 2020 The coronavirus pandemic has found fresh legs around the world, as confirmed deaths pass 600,000 and countries from the US to South Africa to India struggle to contain a surge of new infections.
Trump uses fear of China to drum up hostilities, and diminish arms control
“What about China?” and the threat to US–Russian nuclear arms control https://thebulletin.org/2020/07/what-about-china-and-the-threat-to-us-russian-nuclear-arms-control/#
By David M. Allison, Stephen Herzog, July 20, 2020 The administration of President Donald J. Trump has consistently used fear of China to undermine nearly five decades of bipartisan consensus on US–Russian nuclear arms control. The negative consequences of these actions may last far beyond the Trump presidency. If generations of agreement between Democrats and Republicans on bilateral nuclear treaties with Russia erode, it will pose a significant setback to US national security and global stability. Future leaders may ultimately need to consider new approaches to nuclear risk reduction that preserve the benefits of the arms control regime.
770-ton nuclear reactor pressure vessel completes trip to Utah
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770-ton load from San Onofre nuclear plant finishes trip to Utah, An old nuclear reactor pressure vessel is part of the dismantlement of the plant,San Diego Tribune, By ROB NIKOLEWSKI, JULY
20, 2020 The seven-week journey of a 770-ton shipment of an old but vital piece of the San Onofre nuclear power plant has been completed.
The reactor pressure vessel that helped generate electricity at Unit 1 of the plant arrived last week at a licensed disposal site about 75 miles west of Salt Lake City after being shipped by rail and then over highways in Nevada and Utah……. The vessel left SONGS May 24 via rail before stopping at an industrial park in North Las Vegas, Nevada, where cranes helped assemble a trailer 122 feet long, with 45 axles, that slowly hauled the massive chunk about 450 miles along highways in Nevada and Utah to the Energy Solutions disposal facility in the town of Clive, Utah.
Six heavy-duty Class 8 trucks with combined 4,000-horsepower moved the the load. The convoy used 460 tires that were 18 inches wide to prevent damaging roads, bridges and public infrastructure. Contractors from Emmert International used hydraulic jacks to reinforce drainage culverts. A spokesman for the Nevada Department of Transportation said it was the heaviest load to ever traverse the Silver State’s roadways. Transportation officials in Utah said the shipment arrived July 14 without any issues. The pressure vessel once held nuclear fuel at SONGS when Unit 1 was in operation between 1968 and 1992. For 18 years, the vessel sat on the north end of the plant, covered in a shell of steel two inches thick with a top and bottom each each inches thick to shield against radiation. Encased in a carbon steel cylinder for the trip, the vessel contained pieces of radioactive metal and grout. The shipment was designated as Class A low-level waste, considered by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission as the least hazardous of radioactive waste classifications. The shipment is one of many that will head to the Clive disposal facility as part of a scheduled eight-year process to dismantle SONGS, although future shipments will not be as large. Energy Solutions and construction giant AECOM have partnered to undertake the $4.4 billion demolition project, which began earlier this year……. f all goes as planned, by the time dismantlement at SONGS is completed, all that will remain will be two dry storage facilities holding 3.55 million pounds of used-up fuel, or waste, that accumulated during the time the plant produced power; a security building with personnel to look over the waste enclosed in casks; a seawall 28 feet high at its base; a walkway connecting two beaches north and south of the plant and a switch-yard with power lines. The distinctive 200-feet-high twin domes that loom over Interstate 5 are scheduled to come down between late 2025 and 2027. https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/business/story/2020-07-20/770-ton-load-from-san-onofre-nuclear-plant-finishes-trip-to-ut |
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Settlement for ratepayers over failed VC Summer nuclear project
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COLUMBIA — Santee Cooper on Monday received final approval for a $520 million legal settlement with its customers over its failure to complete an expansion of the V.C. Summer nuclear plant in Fairfield County. The deal, approved by former S.C. Supreme Court Chief Justice Jean Toal, ends a standoff over how much customers must pay for that unfinished power plant, a project abandoned by Santee Cooper in July 2017 after years of escalating costs and construction delays. The settlement also greatly diminishes the chance Santee Cooper could be sold by lawmakers after the $9 billion nuclear debacle — one of the greatest business failures in state history. It puts refunds into the pockets of customers who have paid higher power bills for the V.C. Summer project, as well as substantial fees for the attorneys who argued the case against the project’s owners. The deal requires Santee Cooper freeze its electric rates for four years and pay $200 million to its ratepayers, including members of South Carolina’s 20 electric cooperatives who purchase the utility’s power indirectly. The rate freeze, the plaintiff attorneys argued, could be worth up to $510 million to Santee Cooper’s customers on its own. Another $320 million would be supplied by Dominion Energy, the Virginia-based company that last year purchased S.C. Electric & Gas — Santee Cooper’s partner on the nuclear project. The deal requires Santee Cooper freeze its electric rates for four years and pay $200 million to its ratepayers, including members of South Carolina’s 20 electric cooperatives who purchase the utility’s power indirectly. The rate freeze, the plaintiff attorneys argued, could be worth up to $510 million to Santee Cooper’s customers on its own. Another $320 million would be supplied by Dominion Energy, the Virginia-based company that last year purchased S.C. Electric & Gas — Santee Cooper’s partner on the nuclear project. |
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