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The question is whether weaponized AI, through its deterrent or defensive purposes, is a risk ameliorator or whether by either bringing new or enhanced capabilities to new theaters of combat, and by obviating existing systems and weapons, it generates yet steeper risks.

Lora Saalman, the report’s editor, notted that AI is “a suite of technologies, not a technology.”……….

The development and deployment of AI-enhanced platforms “have both been shaped by and have contributed to an interlocking series of national biases and assumptions that are driving AI integration and decision-making,” SIPRI noted.

One area where these biases and assumptions interlock is in “Dead Hand” – the autonomous capability of a state to retaliate even when its leadership has been wiped out………

other assets are downright alarming. Underwater atomic drones

On the offensive front, strategic bombers and missile-armed submarines may be replaced by robots. Platforms such as unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs), unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and spaceplanes “… provide resiliency and survivability,” SIPRI noted. “These two aims indicate why such vehicles are likely to be the AI-enabled platforms of choice for future nuclear delivery.”

One such asset is a Russian nuclear-powered, nuclear-capable underwater drone “Poseidon.” Torpedo-shaped, 25-meters long, with a modular nuclear reactor, it can move at more than 100km/h at a depth of 1000 meters and is armed with cobalt weapons. Though not yet in service, in 2019 the Russian Navy ordered 30.

“Poseidon is a fantastic machine, but its consequences could be catastrophic,” said South Korean Hwang Il-soon, a nuclear engineer at the School of Mechanical Aerospace and Nuclear Engineering. “It is a kind of dirty bomb – it creates very strong alpha radiation.”  

“Weapons like Poseidon should be banned not just for their environmental impact but for their negative impact on strategic stability,” said Michiru Nishida, Special Assistant for Arms Control, Disarmament and Non-Proliferation Policy at Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. “But it is different for a country like Russia that sees it as a stabilizing factor.”

Space robot missile killers

Some A1-enabled weapons, while defensive in nature, could obviate current weapons and take the arms race into new fields.

Russian Vadim Kozyulin, of Moscow’s Pir Center, noted that there is little transparency about the US X-38B orbital test vehicle, a re-entry spacecraft that can land horizontally on runways, but “… it is a Pentagon project … so is designed for military purposes.”…….

The Pentagon is developing a new strategy of deploying “ghost fleets” of surface and undersea drones – a doctrine is expected to appear in September, Kozyulin said. With these weapons posing a risk to nuclear submarines, “the Russian and Chinese navies will no longer be sure of their nuclear weapons’ reliability,” he said.

…….  In East Asia, remote sensing via reconnaissance satellite networks has already undermined nuclear deterrence. It can also threaten the survivability of nuclear assets, so undermining confidence in deterrence, which “forces parties to rely on more survivable, but less controlled, platforms,” Saalman noted.

She noted that in the region, “the AI-enhanced arms race can become more prominent …India, China and the US all working on this.”…….

Human vs AI   The ultimate fear – one widely featured in science fiction – is whether weaponized AI could supplant or overrule humans……..

 all depends on the algorithms installed in the machines; once approved by a human leader, those algorithms can enable an autonomous, decision-making machine. …….

Kozyulin suggested that if an appropriate international treaty could be crafted, AI could be embedded in competing nations’ early warning systems, providing autonomous monitoring, fail-safe and de-escalation mechanisms. https://asiatimes.com/2020/04/inside-the-grave-new-world-of-atomic-ai/