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The Golden Rule of nuclear economics

Jim Green 2 September 19, The Golden Rule of nuclear economics: Add a zero to nuclear industry cost estimates and your figure will be more accurate than the industry’s.

The Golden Rule works perfectly for AP1000 reactors in the US. In 2006, Westinghouse said it could build an AP1000 reactor for as little as US$1.4 billion (A$2.0 billion) ‒ 10 times lower than the current estimate for the Vogtle project in Georgia.

The Golden Rule holds for EPR reactors under construction in the UK. A decade ago, the estimated construction cost for one EPR reactor in the UK was £2.0 billion (A$3.7 billion) ‒ current estimates for the Hinkley project are seven times higher.

The Golden Rule applies to the small modular reactor under construction in Argentina, with current cost estimates 21 times higher than 2004 estimates.

Admittedly, there are exceptions to the Golden Rule. For example, cost estimates for small modular reactors in China and Russia increased two-fold and four-fold, respectively, but they have not been subject to order-of-magnitude increases. Initial cost estimates for EPR reactors in France and Finland (around A$5 billion) have increased by more than A$10 billion (to around A$17 billion) but that ‘only’ amounts to a three-fold to four-fold increase.

September 2, 2019 - Posted by | 2 WORLD, business and costs

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