European Union countries face deadline to save nuclear deal with Iran

Nuclear options, EU countries face a deadline to save a deal with Tehran that neither party wants to lose, https://www.ft.com/content/1de937ae-7526-11e9-bbad-7c18c0ea0201 Michael Peel , 13 May 19 Iran’s threat to ramp up its nuclear programme sent a shudder through European capitals last week. Now EU countries face a deadline to save a landmark atomic deal with Tehran that neither party wants to lose.

The accord is likely to be raised when the bloc’s foreign ministers gather for a regular meeting in Brussels on Monday. On the table will be Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s ultimatum issued on May 8, the anniversary of the US withdrawal from the agreement. He warned that the Islamic republic would revive atomic activities restricted under the accord, unless EU countries and fellow agreement-backers China and Russia compensate it for economic benefits lost when Washington unilaterally reimposed sanctions. The conundrum for EU states is that they have very little leeway or leverage to do more.

Efforts to sustain EU-Iran commercial dealings have been hobbled because most big companies have turned away from Tehran for fear of possible US retaliation. The pressure is growing for the Europeans to launch operations of a new company known as Instex, which is backed by France, Germany and the UK to facilitate trade with Iran.

Another idea from Tehran watchers is for European countries to lobby the US to restore waivers that allow countries including China to continue importing Iranian oil. That seems a long shot, given the failure of personal overtures by EU leaders to persuade the Trump administration to stay in the nuclear deal in the first place.

So much for the bad news. EU diplomats looking for positives say they at least have a bit of time, as escalation of the crisis seems not to be in the interests of either Iran or the EU for now. Mr Rouhani and his ministers have tempered their ultimatum with calibration, flagging that it will be at least two months and possibly several more before a possible breach of the deal’s limits.

Another perhaps surprising source of European hope is President Donald Trump. While his lieutenants John Bolton, national security adviser, and Mike Pompeo, secretary of state, back the US “maximum pressure” campaign on Tehran and have shown little interest in negotiations, the president has at least paid lip service to the possibility of dialogue. Last week he spoke repeatedly of his hope that Iran would make contact for talks. ]Such a call seems highly unlikely. But it is another sign that there is still room in this turmoil for diplomacy, rather than an inevitable slide to nuclear deal disintegration — and potentially even destructive conflict.

May 14, 2019 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | EUROPE, Iran, politics international

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