2019 April 27 « nuclear-news

Use of Artificial Intelligence in Nuclear Weapons Command and Control

A DIFFERENT USE FOR ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IN NUCLEAR WEAPONS COMMAND AND CONTROL, War on the Rocks, JAGANATH SANKARAN , 26 Apr 19, Artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to change the way the United States and other nations operate their nuclear command and control. For instance, a recent RAND report surveyed AI and nuclear security experts and notes that “AI is expected to become more widely used in aids to decisionmaking” in command-and-control platforms. The report also indicated the possibility that narrow AI could in the future act as a “trusted advisor” in nuclear command and control. In this article, I will examine the advice such an advisor might provide to decision-makers in a nuclear crisis, focusing on the possibility that an algorithm could offer compelling evidence that an incoming nuclear alert was a false alarm, thereby counseling restraint rather than confrontation.

Decision-makers who stand guard at the various levels of the nuclear weapons chain of command face two different forms of stress. The first form of stress is information overload, shortage of time, and chaos in the moment of a crisis. The second is more general, emerging from moral tradeoffs and the fear of causing loss of life on an immense scale. AI and big data analysis techniques have already been applied to address the first kind of stress. The current U.S. nuclear early warning system employs a “dual phenomenology” mechanism designed to ensure speed in detecting a threat and in streamlining information involved in the decision-making process. The early warning system employs advanced satellites and radars to confirm and track an enemy missile almost immediately after launch. In an actual nuclear attack, the various military and political personnel in the chain of command would be informed progressively as the threat is analyzed, until finally the president is notified. This structure substantially reduces information overload and chaos for decision-makers in a crisis.

However, as Richard Garwin writes, the system also reduces the role of the decision-maker “simply to endorse the claim of the sensors and the communication systems that a massive raid is indeed in progress.” While the advanced technologies and data processing techniques used in the early warning system reduces the occurrence of false alerts, it does not completely eliminate the chances of one occurring. ………

Using AI to Prevent Inadvertent Nuclear War These advances in nuclear command and control still do not directly address the second form of stress, one that emerges from the fear of a nuclear war and the accompanying moral tradeoffs. How can AI mitigate this problem? History reminds us that technological sophistication cannot be relied upon to avert accidental nuclear confrontations. Rather, these confrontations have been prevented by individualswho, despite having state-of-the-art technology at their disposal, proffered alternate explanations for a nuclear warning alert. ……..https://warontherocks.com/2019/04/a-different-use-for-artificial-intelligence-in-nuclear-weapons-command-and-control/

April 27, 2019 Posted by Christina Macpherson | 2 WORLD, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Negative ecological impacts of low dose radiation

Chernobyl at 33: More evidence of slow-moving ecological catastrophe, Beyond Nuclear, April 19

Following more than a decade of research indicating negative ecological impacts of low dose radiation, a new study points to reduced success in breeding among a type of rodent living in contaminated areas of Chernobyl. The more radiation, the greater the impact; and what would be normal interactions with the natural ecology can make this impact even worse, which is why lab experiments can’t replicate it fully. These impacts “can lead to significant consequences for individuals, populations, and likely even entire ecosystems.”

Such revelations bode poorly for people who might resettle in areas contaminated by radiological catastrophes. Discovering what happens to people in these areas has been made more difficult because whole databases of radiation doses to humans have gone missing and research has focused mostly on catastrophic impacts rather than more subtle impacts. This is according to a new book “Manual for Survival: A Chernobyl Guide to the Future” by Kate Brown, interviewed on Nuclear Hotseat. Brown also reasons that before we think of using nuclear technology to address climate change, we need to figure out what radiation exposure from nuclear weapons and power has already done to our health.

April 27, 2019 Posted by Christina Macpherson | environment, Ukraine | Leave a comment

USA’s Dept of Energy fails to provide adequate funding for Hanford nuclear clean-up

Hanford Cleanup Plans at Serious Risk, Advisory Board Says https://www.exchangemonitor.com/hanford-cleanup-plans-serious-risk-advisory-board-says/

BY EXCHANGEMONITOR, 26 Apr 19, Cleanup plans for the Hanford Site in Washington state, along with remediation milestones established under the Tri-Party Agreement, are in “serious jeopardy,” the Hanford Advisory Board said Wednesday in its annual budget advice letter to the Department of Energy.

“The HAB views the combined lack of compliant budget appropriations, the unanticipated problems at Hanford, and the extreme increase in estimated funding levels identified in the lifecycle cost report with great concern,” the board told DOE. Those factors will result in cleanup taking longer and costing more, putting workers, the environment, and the public at increased risk, the letter says.

“They will also result in additional discussion about reducing standards or potentially conducting a lesser quality cleanup,” according to the board.

Unanticipated problems in work at the former plutonium production complex have included the spread of radioactive contamination at the Plutonium Finishing Plant demolition in 2017 and the May 2017 collapse of the older of two PUREX Plant radioactive waste storage tunnels.

The Energy Department has addressed the issues, but the costs and schedule impacts from these and other unanticipated setbacks could compound the challenge of meeting milestones set under the legally binding Tri-Party Agreement on Hanford cleanup, the budget letter said.

The latest Hanford Lifecycle Scope, Schedule and Cost Report, released in January, “is particularly concerning,” the board said. It put the remaining cost of Hanford cleanup and the initiation of long-term stewardship at $323 billion to $677 billion, and said work could continue beyond this century. The amount of funding needed annually would increase to $4 billion starting in fiscal 2020 and later could peak as high as $16 billion in 2088 under the worst-case scenario.

“Receiving appropriation for even the low-range annual funding estimates will be extremely challenging, thereby putting the cleanup mission in further jeopardy,” the letter said.

For fiscal 2020, which begins Oct. 1, DOE is seeking $2.1 billion for the two offices at Hanford. That would be a $400 million reduction from current funding levels.

April 27, 2019 Posted by Christina Macpherson | politics, USA, wastes | Leave a comment

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