Nuclear threat still hangs over India and Pakistan

Crisis may be easing, but nuclear threat still hangs over India and Pakistan, Analysis by Brad Lendon, CNN, March 4, 2019 Hong Kong Tensions on the border between India and Pakistan last week pushed the two nuclear-powered South Asian adversaries closer to conflict than at any point in the past two decades.

While the situation has calmed — Pakistan on Friday released an Indian air force pilot it captured after shooting his pane down — drastic swings in relations are the norm. Both countries know the risks when tensions spike.

Following their separation in 1947, relations between India and Pakistan have been in a near constant state of agitation. The two sides have fought several major wars — the last being in 1999 — involving thousands of casualties and numerous skirmishes across the Line of Control in the contested Kashmir region.

Since that last clash, both countries have quietly sought to enlarge and upgrade their military capabilities.

With its military buildup over those decades, India now exceeds Pakistan on most numerical measurements — fighter jets, troops, tanks and helicopters.

India far surpasses Pakistan in other measures, too, especially in military budget, $64 billion to $11 billion, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

But, as is often the case, numbers don’t tell the whole story.

The China question

India has about 3 million military personnel compared to fewer than 1 million for Pakistan, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, but New Delhi can’t focus them all on its neighbor to the west.

A chunk is focused on India’s northeast and its border with China……….

ina is able to keep Indian attentions divided by keeping a close military relationship with Pakistan.

“There is a convergence with Chinese and Pakistan strategic thinking that has continued for five decades now,” said Nishank Motwani, a visiting fellow at the Asia-Pacific College of Diplomacy with expertise on India and Pakistan…………

India’s ties to the West

While Pakistan has formed a close relationship with China, India — with a defense budget six times the size of Pakistan’s — has been on a rapid military modernization program of its own.

“India has more spending power and has been investing in platforms that Pakistan can’t afford,” Motwani said……….

The size disparity

India, with a landmass nearly four times that of Pakistan, can put military assets well back from tense border regions, where any Pakistani strikes against them would encounter multiple layers of air defenses.

In the smaller and more narrow Pakistan, military bases and assets are harder to shield………

The nuclear threat

One area where Indian and Pakistan are evenly matched is the area that raises the most worry whenever hostilities spike between the two — nuclear weapons.

Figures from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute last year show Pakistan with 140 to 150 nuclear warheads and India with 130 to 140.

Layton worries that if the situation gets dire for Pakistan — something that’s far from what we’re seeing at the moment — they could be used before commanders in Islamabad could stop them.

“Pakistan has a strategic policy of delegating nuclear release approval down to lower level tactical units,” he said. “There is a real danger of ‘loose nukes,’ that is lower-level bellicose commanders using tactical nuclear weapons if they see fit.”

Motwani said Pakistan wants India to know that nuclear threat is always there……… https://edition.cnn.com/2019/03/01/asia/india-pakistan-military-balance-intl/index.html

March 7, 2019 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | India, Pakistan, politics international

No comments yet.

nuclear-news

The News That Matters about the Nuclear Industry Fukushima Chernobyl Mayak Three Mile Island Atomic Testing Radiation Isotope