Arctic ice – summers without it could happen sooner than predicted

Ice-free Arctic summers could happen on earlier side of predictions
A new study in AGU’s journal Geophysical Research Letters predicts the Arctic Ocean will be ice-free in summer by mid-century.EurekAlert, AMERICAN GEOPHYSICAL UNION, 27 Feb 19

WASHINGTON — The Arctic Ocean could become ice-free in the summer in the next 20 years due to a natural, long-term warming phase in the tropical Pacific that adds to human-caused warming, according to a new study.

Computer models predict climate change will cause the Arctic to be nearly free of sea ice during the summer by the middle of this century, unless human greenhouse gas emissions are greatly reduced.

But a closer examination of long-term temperature cycles in the tropical Pacific points towards an ice-free Arctic in September, the month with the least sea ice, on the earlier side of forecasts, according to a new study in the AGU journal Geophysical Research Letters.

“The trajectory is towards becoming ice-free in the summer but there is uncertainty as to when that’s going to occur,” said James Screen, an associate professor in climate science at the University of Exeter in the U.K. and the lead author of the new study………https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2019-02/agu-ias022719.php

February 28, 2019 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | ARCTIC, climate change