nuclear-news

Why the UK nuclear renaissance plan is doomed to failure.

NuClear News Sept 18

Jeremy Leggett, former Chair of SolarCentury, has used 30 pictures and charts to show why the UK nuclear renaissance plan is doomed to failure. It’s a great way to get a point across. But sometimes it’s useful to have it written down too.

• Nuclear power has become uneconomic and grown increasingly so with every announcement of cost increases and delays; and every announcement of reductions in the cost of renewables
• “Britain should cancel its nuclear white elephant and spend the billions on making renewables work.” Economist 6th Aug 2016http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21703367-britain-should-cancel-itsnuclear-white-elephant-and-spend-billions-making-renewables
• Nuclear power can’t compete with solar power says former IEA boss Nobuaki Tanaka. Nuclear is “ridiculously expensive” and “utterly uncompetitive” says the long standing nuclear advocate. It costs $9bn to build one reactor. Asahi Shimbun 24th July 2018http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201807240045.html
• Key players know the game is up. Industrial giants once supportive of nuclear need no further persuasion that they must change to reflect the new economic of energy.
• For the first time, global solar capacity grew faster in 2017 than all fossil fuels and nuclear combined. The record 98GW of new solar built in 2017 increased the world’s cumulative capacity by a third to 399GW. Carbon Brief 5th April 2018https://www.carbonbrief.org/global-solar-capacity-grew-faster-than-fossil-fuels-2017- report Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2018, http://fs-unepcentre.org/publications/global-trends-renewable-energy-investment-report-2018
• One example of officialdom underestimating exponential technologies: UK’s Ofgem on solar PV. Ofgem’s scenarios were hopelessly wide of the mark. Exeter University, 6th May 2016 http://projects.exeter.ac.uk/igov/new-thinking-solar-surprise-revisited/
• “Utilities dispel all doubts about renewables being able to power planet”. Jerome Pecressse, GE Renewables: “We are inventing things that we did not even imagine three years ago …renewable baseload is coming fast.” Recharge News 6th June 2018http://www.rechargenews.com/transition/1505979/utilities-dispel-all-doubts-aboutrenewables-ability-to-power-planet

The UK’s first ever National Infrastructure Assessment says at least half of all UK power should be renewable by 2030, and can be at no extra cost. It urges the Government to grab the golden opportunity to ditch nuclear and go with cheaper solar and wind. Solar Power Portal 10th July 2018 No2NuclearPower nuClear News No.110, September 2018 19 https://www.solarpowerportal.co.uk/news/grab_the_golden_opportunity_to_go_green_uk_urged_to_ditch_nuclear_in_favour

• Tepco, long a mainstay of the Japanese nuclear industry pivots towards renewables. “We must gain competitive advantage in renewable energy” says President Tomoaki Kobayakawa. Nikkei Asian Review 24th July 2018 https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/Tepco-seeks-overseas-partners-inrenewable-energy-pivot

EDF is in deep financial trouble: The utility upon which the UK Government’s plans for a nuclear renaissance depend faces an existential threat with no obvious escape route.

• On 4th December 2007, EDF began construction of an EPR at Flamanville, It was due to cost €3.3bn and start in 2012. Start-up is now scheduled to occur no earlier than Q2 2020 and EDF now estimates project costs at €10.9 billion. The plant is intended to be the forerunner of two reactors to be built at Hinkley Point C in Somerset. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flamanville_Nuclear_Power_Plant
• High levels of carbon were found in the steel used for the in the reactor pressure giving it “lower than expected mechanical toughness values” Telegraph 17th April 2015 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/11546271/New-UKnuclear-plants-under-threat-as-serious-anomaly-with-model-found-in-France.html
• So what do you do if you’re the Chief Financial Officer of a Company with a balance sheet like this: €18.5bn market cap; €37bn net debt; €22bn for Hinkley C; €55bn to keep French reactors safe; FT 7th March 2016http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ef9d4de8-e3e9-11e5-ac45-5c039e797d1c.html
• You resign over the company’s failure to cancel Hinkley Point C. French unions also vote against the plant.
• On the 15th September 2016, the UK Prime Minister finally gave Hinkley Point C the green light after 6 weeks of indecision and veiled threats from Beijing. HPC is now a joint venture of EDF and China General Nuclear who are investing £6bn in the currently £18bn project. Guardian 15th September 2016 http://www.theguardian.com/uknews/2016/sep/15/hinkley-point-c-nuclear-power-station-gets-go-ahead
• On 10th April 2018 EDF warned of yet more delays at Flamanville – 150 quality deviations found in welding of pipes used to carry steam to turbines. Guardian 10th April 2018 http://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/apr/10/edf-warns-of-faults-atnuclear-power-station-it-is-building-in-france
• The French nuclear regulator fears epidemic safety culture collapse at Flamanville – didaster looms for EDF. Weld failures mean the nuclear plant is delayed until 2020. Liberation 31st May 2018 http://www.liberation.fr/france/2018/05/31/l-epr-deflamanville-risque-de-voir-son-demarrage-reporte-a-2020_1655448

On 25th July 2018 there was yet more bad news for EDF. 33 welds need repairing. Nuclear fuel now to be loaded Q4 2019. EDF says costs up €0.4bn to €10.9bn FT 25th July 2018 https://www.ft.com/content/1b2473c8-8fdd-11e8-b639-7680cedcc421

• The Nuclear industry lives on a safety knife edge globally. And after Fukushima it cannot afford a single major accident.
• Tepco wants to risk a meltdown at Kashiwazaki to generate profits to pay for the meltdown at Fukushima. It is the biggest nuclear plant in the world with 7 reactors. It sits on two active earthquake fault. Guardian 28th December 2017 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/28/fears-of-another-fukushima-astepco-plans-to-restart-worlds-biggest-nuclear-plant
• On 5th September 2016 it was reported that the BBC had found that Sellafield is riddled with safety flaws. A whistleblower said that his biggest fear for the site was for one of the nuclear waste silos to go up in flames – the consequences of which would be dire. He said: “If there is a fire there it could generate a plume of radiological waste that will go across western Europe.” Guardian 5th Sept 216http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/sep/05/sellafield-nuclear-plantriddled-safety-flaws-according-bbc-panorama
• Sizewell B and 27 other nuclear plants at risk of catastrophic failure due to carbon anomalies. A report from Greenpeace France based on documents provided to the independent French Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire. Ecologist 29th September 2016 http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_analysis/2988175/sizewell_b_and_27_other_ edf_nuclear_plants_at_risk_of_catastrophic_failure.html · New cracks in the reactor core at Hunterston B raise questions about the reliability of the entire UK nuclear fleet. Another setback for EDF – £120m loss of revenue for the 6 months the reactor is closed for repairs. Guardian 6th May 2018 http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/may/06/cracks-nuclear-reactorthreaten-uk-energy-policy-hunsterston
• Opinion in the business world is turning against the nuclear industry. And as its desperation becomes ever clearer, the UK Government is in danger of overreaching. Nuclear Power in the UK is now effectively nationalised at great expense to taxpayers

In august 2016 a major reversal in opinion on nuclear power amongst business leaders was reported. There was a big majority for new nuclear in 2015. In 2016 only 9% strongly agree. 75% of IOD members support strong solar and wind policies. Guardian 19th August 2016 http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/aug/19/businesschiefs-attack-uk-government-failure-to-secure-energy-supply

• In 2017 it was reported that the Kuwaiti Sovereign Wealth Fund would sell its shares in Areva. French media reported that KIA had complained that its investment in Areva in 2010 had been based on incorrect company accounts. Reuters 4th Aug 2017 https://www.reuters.com/article/areva-restructuring-kia-idUSL5N1KQ3A5

In a remarkable U-turn the UK Government agrees to a £5bn public stake in welsh nuclear power station. The total cost of Wylfa to be shared with Hitachi and the Japanese Government is estimated at £16bn. The price of power is expected to be £75-77/MWh – more than solar and wind. Guardian 4th June 2018 http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jun/04/uk-takes-5bn-stake-inwelsh-nuclear-power-station-in-policy-u-turn

• Meanwhile a UK Government poll finds that a record 85% of the public support renewable energy – 87% support solar; 66% would be happy to have a large renewable project locally; 74% are concerned about climate change; 35% support nuclear and 22% oppose it. Climate Action 26th April 2018 http://www.climateactionprogramme.org/news/85-of-the-uk-supports-renewableenergy-in-record-high-poll Energy and Climate Change Attitude Tracker, Jan 2018 https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attach ment_data/file/678077/BEIS_Public_Attitudes_Tracker_- _Wave_24_Summary_Report.pdf
• Security risks are becoming intolerable. Despite Whitehall’s belief that military nuclear needs civil support; the security risk posed in the modern era simply by the existence of a civil nuclear programme are growing fast

. · It seems that Whitehall’s obsession with civil nuclear is in fact a military romance. So argue researchers at the Science Policy Research Unit. They find evidence of desperation to keep expertise for submarine reactors alive. Guardian 29th March 2018 http://www.theguardian.com/science/political-science/2018/mar/29/why-is-ukgovernment-so-infatuated-nuclear-power

• In January 2016 Russian Security Services were accused by Kiev of getting hackers to shut down the Ukrainian power grid. Malware used had previously infected power supplies in the US and Europe, without shutting down the grid. This is a beginning. Hacker News 5th Jan 2016 https://thehackernews.com/2016/01/Ukraine-powersystem-hacked.html
• Cyberattacks have turned potential control of US power plants over to Russia according to the Department of Homeland Security. New York Times 15th March 2018https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/15/us/politics/russia-cyberattacks.html

And then there is global warming. If governments do not shut down residual nuclear programmes it seems climate change impacts will at some point – in the case of the many reactors on coasts and rivers – do the job for them.

• Nuclear regulators around the world have used out-of-date scientific understanding of sea level rise. Ensia: “A number of scientific papers published in 2018 suggest that climate change will impact coastal nuclear plants earlier and harder than industry government or regulatory bodies have expected.” Ensia 8th Aug 2018https://ensia.com/features/coastal-nuclear/

This summer’s heatwave forced 3 Nordic reactors to be curbed and 1 to close. EDF may close 4 reactors. Seawater off Sweden and Finland was too warm for reactor cooling. Reuters 1st Aug 2018 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nordics-nuclearpowerexplainer/in-hot-water-how-summer-heat-has-hit-nordic-nuclear-plantsidUSKBN1KM4ZR Reuters 1st Aug 2018 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-francenuclearpower-weather/frances-edf-may-halt-four-nuclear-reactors-due-to-heatwavestatement-idUSKBN1KM56C

• Renewables offset Fossil and Nuclear shortfalls in generation. Recharge News 16th Aug 2018 http://www.rechargenews.com/wind/1558064/renewables-compensate-forfossil-nuclear-shortfalls-in-heat-wave    http://www.no2nuclearpower.org.uk/wp/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/NuClearNewsNo110.pdf

September 10, 2018 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | politics, UK