nuclear-news

While a surprise Le Pen victory would likely see a reversal of France’s reactor closure plans, a Macron win would usher in a surge in decommissioning activity in the coming decade. Macron has set out bullish renewable energy objectives and pledged to retain laws introduced in 2015 which aim to cut the share of nuclear power from 75% to 50% by 2025.

However, Macron has not set out a firm position on this nuclear target and market analysts have highlighted the challenge of shutting down an estimated 25 GW of nuclear power capacity over such a short timeframe while maintaining grid stability.

“The lack of a firm position on this issue may be because Mr Macron is well aware that the 2025 target is highly ambitious,” Jefferies analysts Ahmed Farman and Oliver Salvesen said in a research note April 24.

The 50% target may instead be reached between 2030 and 2033, a Macron adviser told Bloomberg in a report published April 26. The 50% objective could be reached sooner if ASN, the French nuclear safety authority, imposes tough conditions to extend reactor lifespans from 40 to 50 years, the adviser told Bloomberg.

Some 34 of EDF’s 58 reactors will soon reach 40 years of operations and the ASN will publish its safety report on the proposed lifespan extensions in around 2018.

Macron has said he would decide on the future of these plants following the ASN’s report.

Green bond

Macron’s pledge to reduce the share of nuclear power to 50% is based on a rapid expansion of wind and solar power. Macron has pledged to double wind and solar capacity and close all of France’s coal-fired power stations by the end of his five-year term in 2022.

Macron’s renewables pledge will require an acceleration in the approval process for renewable energy projects. France’s wind and solar development has been hampered by regulatory and administrative hurdles and Macron has pledged to simplify the authorization process.

Jefferies analysts Farman and Salvesen estimate the closure of 25 GW of nuclear power capacity in the coming eight years would require around 75 GW of new renewable energy capacity.

“That looks quite challenging given that in the last 10 years only 18 GW of wind and solar was installed in France,” the analysts said in their note.

A key advantage for developers going forward is the falling cost of wind and solar power. Technology improvements and improved installation practices have driven wind and solar costs towards wholesale market prices, removing the need for state subsidies in some countries.

Shutdown begins

Macron also supports the current government’s pledge to close two 900 MW reactors at Fessenheim when EDF brings online its 1.65 MW EPR at Flamanville, currently expected by the end of 2018. The EPR project is several years behind schedule but on March 15 EDF said it had begun system performance testing in line with its latest construction timetable announced in September 2015.

“The next milestone will involve fuel loading and then start-up at the end of the fourth quarter of 2018,” the company said……….. http://analysis.nuclearenergyinsider.com/french-presidential-favorite-pins-reactor-closures-renewables-growth?utm_campaign=NEI+03MAY17+Newsletter+B&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Eloqua&elqTrackId=fa70d686bf254ce4b69dc41f31b9c383&elq=acbe9ff6fdea4