North Korea’s steady march towards a missile that can hit America

Month-by-month North Korea edges closer to a missile that can hit America http://www.news.com.au/world/asia/monthbymonth-north-korea-edges-closer-to-a-missile-that-can-hit-america/news-story/d524ea3d65ef15906bb1b1439923fb5d\ APRIL 16, 2017 ANALYSIS

THE strategic temperature on the Korean peninsula continues to rise and North Korea’s failed missile launch has done nothing to dial down tensions.

The launch clearly designed to coincide with the visit of US Vice President Mike Pence to South Korea, as well as sending an unequivocal that Pyongyang is not deterred by the US military build-up in the region.

The missile launch proved to be a dud, but it’s wrong to assume this reveals major flaws in North Korea’s capacity to strike targets far and wide.

The regime in Pyongyang has already proven it possesses the ability to acquire an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) by successfully placing satellites into orbit twice. The regime has also rapidly accelerated the country’s nuclear weapons program, which has been central to North Korea’s strategy of military self-reliance since the 1960s.

Month-by-month, Pyongyang is edging closer to weaponising a nuclear-armed missile that can hit the United States (and by definition Australia). This is a sobering prospect, one that deeply concerns policymakers. It explains why the Trump administration has deployed a carrier battle group to waters surrounding the Korean peninsula, and why Washington will move to reinforce this presence if North Korea tests another missile in coming days, or worse still, a nuclear device.

Possessing nuclear weapons, and a proven willingness to embrace risk, the brash young leader Kim Jong-un believes the US and its allies will back down if push comes to shove. While President Trump’s strike on Syria last week was a game-changer in terms of perceptions of US resolve, Pyongyang will calculate the US does not have the stomach to risk a full-scale war. But Donald Trump might just think that the costs of not acting militarily against North Korea outweigh any benefits of avoiding war and having to live with a hostile state that can strike the US mainland with nuclear weapons.

Pyongyang will probably carry out either a nuclear test or another missile launch before the end of the month. The regime will be keen to validate its credentials in standing up to President Trump, not least to demonstrate to the North Korean people that Kim Jong-un is in firm command of the country but also to prove to the world that North Korea will not be pushed around by any other country, no matter how powerful or who’s in charge.

Andrew O’Neil is Professor of Political Science and Dean of Research in the Business School at Griffith University