How to know if a nuclear bomb works without setting it off

The Nuclear Button U.S. Presidents Can Push at Will , Bloomberg Eric Roston eroston , 5 Aug 16 As President Barack Obama counts down his last months in office, he has returned to one of his earliest and most ambitious promises, one he fully articulated in Prague in 2009: “I state clearly and with conviction America’s commitment to seek the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons.“

In the tumultuous years since, it’s probably become clear to him the only way America can rid the world of nuclear weapons would involve the (until recently) unspeakable prospect of using them. Proposals for radical reductions have been largely stymied by political realities at home and growing threats abroad. The deal Obama did make with Iran infuriated Republicans (and some Democrats). Now he’s going around the first branch again: He is asking the United Nations to help him revisit the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, which turns 20 next month. White House National Security Council spokesman Ned Price says the administration wants to strengthen detonation detection as well as support for nations that already ban tests.

Republicans in the U.S. Senate, who have consistently blocked treaty ratification, are far from amused—a situation made worse when you throw in the prospect of UN involvement in American national security matters. In the two decades since President Bill Clinton signed the treaty, the U.S. has studiously avoided any testing. Republican opponents nevertheless maintain that tying America’s hands threatens the national interest (tests are underground—above-ground explosions generally ceased in 1963 under a separate accord).

But all the old arguments being dusted off for the latest battle seem to ignore a key fact that may moot the entire debate, at least over U.S. testing: Advances in technology have made live testing pointless. We can do it all in the lab.

How to know a bomb works without setting it off

Nuclear bombs have a special status. They are the president’s weapons. Obama’s longstanding position, that the U.S. can design, build, and maintain nuclear weapons without testing them, raises at least one practical question: Without actual explosions, how will he know his weapons work?

Two advances in science and technology help answer the question: simulation and seismic monitoring. Let’s dip into the deep past for a minute………

Now the Energy Department’s National Laboratories sign off on the safety and war-readiness of U.S. weapons through monitoring, simulation, and maintenance. Ironically, “Trinity” is not only a haunting national landmark in New Mexico, but also the name of a supercomputer at Los Alamos National Laboratory capable of performing 40 quadrillion calculations a second.

Another reason Obama’s proposal shouldn’t be viewed as a new security initiative is tied to monitoring. In January, nuclear experts quickly knew that the quakes coming from North Korea were caused by a bomb, but not a hydrogen bomb. The seismic signal was nearly identical to earlier atomic tests.

Some 76 countries host about 170 seismic monitoring stations that listen 24 hours a day for disturbances on land. Complementary systems listen to the oceans and sniff for radioactivity. Any expansion of monitoring would make it easier to discern the characteristics of a detonated device, but the world is pretty well covered as it is.

Despite political obstacles, scientists have made nuclear weapons testing increasingly harmless to humans and the environment. The countries what benefit from such advances, especially those that signed the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, are probably less interested in what the U.S. does about making sure testing stays in the lab than they are about who gets the real nuclear button come November.

—With assistance by Toluse Olorunnipa in Washington. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-05/the-nuclear-button-u-s-presidents-can-push-at-will