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Despite “cooler” La Nina, 2016 likely to be hottest year on record

Scientists: 2016 likely to be hottest year on record despite looming La Niña Skeptical Science  7 June 2016  This is a re-post from Carbon Brief by Roz Pidcock The phenomenon known as El Niño, which combined with human-caused warming to supercharge global temperature in 2015/16 and brought chaotic weather worldwide, is officially on its way out. But stepping quickly into El Niño’s shoes is its cooler counterpart,La Niña.

Carbon Brief has been speaking to climate scientists about what it all means. Despite La Niña’s propensity to drag down global temperature, so exceptional is the warming we’ve seen so far this year that 2016 is still likely to top the charts as the hottest year on record.

But we should expect 2017 to be cooler than 2016, as the world begins to feel the full force of La Niña, scientists say.

El Niño is over

The El Niño that left such a mark on weather, crop yields and water supplies in 2015/16 is firmly on its way out. Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology this week became the first of the world’s major weather organisations to officially declare it dead.

The high sea surface temperatures that have characterised the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean are waning and relative calm is on its way to being restored, say scientists……

While the record-topping El Niño may be fading fast, hot on its heels is its cooler counterpart, known as La Niña.

During La Niña, a change in the trade winds mean more heat is absorbed from theatmosphere into the ocean than usual. In El Niño years, the reverse happens and moreheat enters the atmosphere from the ocean instead. This major reshuffling of heat means both El Niño and La Niña tend to have big – but opposite – effects on global surface temperature……..

A record hot start to 2016

So far in 2016, global temperatures have been exceptionally high.

With February, March and April all breaking monthly temperature records by the biggest margins ever recorded, 2016 is looking like a sensible bet for the warmest year on record.

Earlier this month, Dr Gavin Schmidt, director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Science, put the chance of 2016 topping the temperature rankings at more than 99%.

Will the coming La Niña alter that picture?……..

‘A done deal’

Such is the warming seen so far this year that 2016 is likely to retain the top spot, whether or not a La Niña develops, says Cobb. She tells Carbon Brief:

“It’s likely a done deal, for two reasons.”

One, is that La Niña tends to have a smaller influence on global temperature than her warmer brother. A large event still wouldn’t be enough to redress the balance, Cobb says:

“Even a strong La Niña event later this year will likely not compensate for the warm months we’ve had early in 2016 associated with an exceptionally strong El Niño event.”

Two, is that La Niña typically doesn’t reach a peak until winter, or early the following year. This means the biggest impact on global temperature is likely to come in 2017, not in 2016.

That means that, while La Niña will reduce some of the warmth in the latter part of 2016, it is likely that 2016 will stay in top spot. Scaife predicts:

“There continues to be a high chance that 2016 will be a nominal third record year in a row.”……….http://www.skepticalscience.com/2016-likely-record-hot-despite-la-nina.html

June 10, 2016 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | 2 WORLD, climate change