nuclear-news

Recently, news from the Korean Peninsula has been dominated by missiles: as satellite images confirmed, the North Koreans have been busy preparing another test launch of “BM-25 Musudan”, their intermediate-range missile.

The launch ended in failure, the fourth such failure in this year. Nonetheless, North Korean engineers and scientists are busy developing both long-range and submarine-based ballistic missiles, capable of hitting the United States.

There has been much hype about the recent Musudan launch, but few people noticed another piece of news that came from South Korea a week earlier.

A high-ranking official, speaking on condition of anonymity – but clearly authorised to make such statements – said that the South Korean navy is also developing its own submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM), so the new South Korean submarines will be equipped with a launchpad.

This statement was a reminder of another possible challenge associated with the North Korean nuclear and missile programmes: The threat is that its programmes will provoke a symmetrical response from the countries in the region, triggering a missile and, perhaps, even a nuclear arms race………

 If the nuclear and missile arms race starts in East Asia, where will it stop? East Asia today is eerily reminiscent of Europe in the early 1900s, before the outbreak of World War I.

It is also a place where most nations deeply distrust their neighbours, and where old-style nationalism still reigns supreme.

So far, age-old hatreds have been controlled by the US hegemony – Koreans and Japanese, in spite of their historical animosities, have been prevented from confrontation by their alliances with the US – as well as by the record high economic growth. But will such a state of things continue indefinitely? This looks increasingly unlikely……

And, surely, there is the “China factor” – the rising superpower is, to put it mildly, quite unpopular among its neighbours, from Vietnam to Japan.

In the changing strategic situation, many such countries can choose nuclear weapons as a way to deter China which – due to its sheer size and economic might – can hardly be deterred by conventional weapons.

Indeed, the eventual deployment of the North Korean nuclear-armed missiles, combined with signs of US indecisiveness, might easily push South Korea towards acquiring its own nuclear deterrent.

Technically, acquiring nuclear weapons would not cost much money or take much time for a highly developed nation such as South Korea.

If it happens, the probability of a nuclear Japan will increase, and Taiwan, as well as more advanced countries of South East Asia, might start wondering why they should be left behind.

Usually, such columns are supposed to end with some positive suggestions, but in this case there is hardly anything optimistic to say.

North Koreans are determined to maintain and improve their nuclear deterrent, and given their strategic situation, they can hardly be blamed for such an attitude.

However, their actions increase the risk to security in this vital region, and perhaps the entire world. http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2016/06/nuclear-arms-race-east-asia-160602091442504.html