Britain: Nuclear threat to renewables
We have previously reported assertions by Dr Dave Toke that spending on Hinkley Point C would obliterate spending on renewables, because of the way the Levy Control Framework is organised. (19) At the moment it looks as though the UK will miss its European target which requires us to produce around 30% of our electricity supplies from renewable resources –about 108TWh in 2020 rising to 141TWh in 2030. The current Government doesn’t appear to have any ambition to go beyond this low level of renewable supply
nuClear News Mar 16[excellent graphs on original] The Government’s National Policy Statement (NPS) on Energy, published in July 2011, foresaw a need for 113 Gigawatts (GW) of electricity generating capacity in 2025 compared with 85GW now. 59GW of this would be new capacity, of which 33GW would need to be renewable energy, mostly wind, to meet commitments to the European Union. This would leave 26GW for industry to determine. At the time there was 8GW of non-renewable capacity under construction leaving a balance of 18GW still to be determined. The Government said it wanted a substantial portion of this to be nuclear. (1)
By the time the NPS was published the Government said energy companies had announced that they intend to put forward proposals to develop 16 GW of new nuclear power generation capacity by the end of 2025. (2)
By 2013 the Coalition Government’s Nuclear Industrial Strategy admitted that 16GW of new capacity was unlikely to be complete until 2030. (3) With the announcement that Hinkley Point is not now expected to be generating until 2025 it looks unlikely that anything will be complete before then.
[Excellent table on original]
There is also discussion of around 7 GW of small modular reactors (SMRs) by 2035 with Trawsfynydd and Hartlepool mentioned of potential sites. There is also the possibility of a fast reactor “PRISM” reactor or CANDU plutonium “burner-breeder” reactor at Sellafield.
UK electricity demand was about 360TWh in 2014. But the NPS said that the Government expects a doubling of electricity demand – to around 720TWh – by 2050. In actual fact, as a recent report for Together Against Sizewell C has shown, the latest Government scenarios envisage increases in demand of only 29.6 to 52.9% by 2050 – taking demand to between 467TWh and 550TWh. (12)
Friends of the Earth’s September 2012 Plan for Clean British Energy, uses an electricity demand of 470TWh in 2030. It admits this is a higher demand than many other studies. It assumes the maximum energy efficiency under the Department of Energy and Climate Change model even though a report from McKinsey for DECC shows that much more could be achieved. However, using a conservative demand figure allows electricity to be used to promote faster decarbonisation in the heating and transport sectors.[good graph]
The new nuclear reactors currently proposed, including Bradwell B, might produce around 139TWh per year if they were able to operate at an unlikely 90% load factor. Sizewell B is also expected to be still operating until at least 2035 supplying perhaps another 9TWh bringing the total up to 148TWh per year. Andrea Leadsom, Minister of State for Energy and Climate Change, told the House of Commons that the Government hopes to be able to meet 35% of the UK’s electricity needs from nuclear by 2028. (14) This now looks extremely unlikely, but if the currently proposed reactors are completed by 2030 or 2035, nuclear could be providing 31% of the 470TWh of demand. [good graph]
A 75GW nuclear programme by 2050 looks like pure fantasy. It is part of a scenario where total installed capacity in the UK is around 160GW by 2050. (15) 75GW of nuclear capacity could generate perhaps as much as 585TWh or between 80% to more than 100% of demand. It would require an eye watering 30GW of new capacity to be built between 2030 and 2040 and another 30GW between 2040 and 2050, and newer fission technologies such as small modular reactors (SMRs) or Generation IV (mainly fast) reactors. Spent fuel reprocessing, fusion reactors and alternative fuel cycles (such as Thorium) might also be needed. (16)While to most commentators this would sound like a nuclear fantasy, unfortunately the Government does not appear to be looking seriously at alternative non-nuclear energy strategies. (17)
Neil Crumpton has suggested what looks like a much more realistic prospect. (18) By 2035 we could have all of the reactors in the table above, plus 7GW of Small Modular Reactors and Sizewell B could still be open. In all this 26GW could be generating around 196TWh/yr. (This could mean nuclear providing 36% to 42% of electricity demand – not that different to Leadsom’s 35% by 2028.) [graph]
Renewables provided 19.1% of electricity demand in 2014 or around 65TWh In Friends of the Earth’s scenario renewables grow to 348TWh by 2030. In our medium nuclear scenario renewables would be limited to 209TWh by 2030/5 – a drop of 139TWh. In the more extensive nuclear scenario renewables are further limited to only 161TWh, which means the renewable industry would miss out on supplying 187TWh.
We have previously reported assertions by Dr Dave Toke that spending on Hinkley Point C would obliterate spending on renewables, because of the way the Levy Control Framework is organised. (19) At the moment it looks as though the UK will miss its European target which requires us to produce around 30% of our electricity supplies from renewable resources –about 108TWh in 2020 rising to 141TWh in 2030. The current Government doesn’t appear to have any ambition to go beyond this low level of renewable supply.
http://www.no2nuclearpower.org.uk/nuclearnews/NuClearNewsNo83.pdf
March 9, 2016 -
Posted by Christina Macpherson |
ENERGY, politics, renewable, UK
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We have previously reported assertions by Dr Dave Toke that spending on Hinkley Point C would obliterate spending on renewables, because of the way the Levy Control Framework is organised. (19) At the moment it looks as though the UK will miss its European target which requires us to produce around 30% of our electricity supplies from renewable resources –about 108TWh in 2020 rising to 141TWh in 2030. The current Government doesn’t appear to have any ambition to go beyond this low level of renewable supply
nuClear News Mar 16[excellent graphs on original] The Government’s National Policy Statement (NPS) on Energy, published in July 2011, foresaw a need for 113 Gigawatts (GW) of electricity generating capacity in 2025 compared with 85GW now. 59GW of this would be new capacity, of which 33GW would need to be renewable energy, mostly wind, to meet commitments to the European Union. This would leave 26GW for industry to determine. At the time there was 8GW of non-renewable capacity under construction leaving a balance of 18GW still to be determined. The Government said it wanted a substantial portion of this to be nuclear. (1)
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