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Experts guessing about meaning of North Korea’s renewed nuclear threat

North Korea’s renewed nuclear threat keeps experts guessing, Guardian, Julian Borger, 15 Sept 15 
Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons complex relaunch seen as sabre rattling – or the prerequisite for another nuclear test. North Korea’s announcement that it had revamped and relaunched its nuclear weapons complex a day after threatening new launches is meant to signal a renewed determination to build long-range nuclear missiles.

The statement on state media on Tuesday warned that US hostility would be met with “nuclear weapons at any time”. However, while many anticipate that the regime will try to launch a satellite with long-range missile technology on 10 October to mark the 70th anniversary of the founding of the Workers party, few are less certain on how significant the announcement really is.

One western expert described it as being of little practical importance since it could be seen as no more than a morale-boosting exercise for the regime, while another said it could presage a fourth nuclear test by the Pyongyang regime. The North Korean nuclear complex at Yongbyon contains a 5 megawatt reactor, capable of producing plutonium as a byproduct, and a newly extended plant for enriching uranium. Both have the capacity for producing weapons-grade fissile material for a bomb, and the announcement, attributed to the director of the nation’s atomic energy institute, said that both had been “rearranged, changed or readjusted and they started normal operation”.

David Albright, president of the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security, said that trying to estimate what is really going on in Yongbyon from satellite imagery can be a guessing game.

“There is heat coming from the enrichment plant, but that’s not direct evidence that it is functioning. They could just have the heat on,” he said.

He added: “We will have to wait to see if there are signs of normal operation. We could see water being discharged and steam coming off the turbine.”

Albright said that although there were signs that the North Koreans had not been able to get the reactor to work at full capacity, it was still capable of producing three to four kilograms of plutonium a year, once the spent fuel had been reprocessed – enough for a single warhead. He added that it is likely the regime had mastered the science of making warheads small enough to put on missiles…….. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/15/north-koreas-renewed-nuclear-threat-keeps-experts-guessing

September 16, 2015 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | North Korea, politics international, weapons and war