nuclear-news

Unpredictability of the real costs of nuclear

The United States and other countries have plentiful experience building and operating nuclear power plants. Currently 438 nuclear reactors with a combined capacity of 379,000 megawatts generate more than 10% of the total electricity used worldwide.

The US has the largest fleet, with 99 reactors generating almost 20% of US electricity. France has the second-largest, with 58 reactors producing 77% of its electricity. The Chinese fleet of 27 reactors generates under 3% of its electricity.

Nevertheless, there is great uncertainty about the cost of building new plants. The existing fleet in the US and most developed countries is very old, dating back to a period of intense growth in the 1960s and 1970s. In the US, the most recent construction permit for an operating reactor was issued in 1978, although completion work on a couple of stalled projects and “uprates” – capital refurbishment that increases capacity – have occurred at a number of units.

New construction fell off in other developed countries, too. The few additions made since 1990 were mostly in Japan, Korea, Eastern Europe, Russia and China………

The estimates for the capital cost of nuclear – for plants entering service in 2019 – assume that units can be built without the disastrous delays and overruns that plagued the US industry in the past, and which have plagued some recent projects, too. And the nuclear estimate also doesn’t take into account the benefit of certain subsidies currently available for some new construction.

Fluctuating costs

Among the reasons it has become so difficult to know the price of nuclear is that supply chains have atrophied and hard-won engineering and construction experience has dissipated. Meanwhile, social pressures for improved safety – preceding the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan – forced design changes over the years, and we have yet to see what the impact will be on actual construction costs.

In 2005, the French firm Areva began construction at Olkiluoto, Finland, of its new design, the EPR reactor, a pressurized water reactor built to resist the impact of a commercial airline crash.

Unfortunately, that unit is, so far, five years overdue and projected to cost three times the original estimate. Construction of a second new EPR unit at Flammanville, France, was begun in 2007 and is already three years overdue with a more than doubling of projected costs. Regulators in France have also recently discovered “very serious” weak spots in the reactor there.

In 2013, Southern Company began construction of two new units at the Vogtle station in the state of Georgia using Westinghouse’s new AP1000 design. Those units, too, have already run into delays and cost overruns, although the process is not far enough along to draw a firm conclusion about the impact on cost. These cases evoke memories of the very bad experience with construction delays and cost overruns that plagued the US industry from the 1970s.

China’s building spree

In fact, the majority of new construction in recent years has been in China. The country has 27 reactors already in operation, all but three of which were built since 2000. The 24 reactors presently under construction in China represent more than one-third of current global construction.

So far, there has been no public record of major construction delays and cost overruns in China, although it is difficult to know what lesson to draw from that fact for projects in the West and elsewhere. It is also difficult to use the cost of their construction to inform estimates of what costs might be in the US or other developed countries.

Uncertainty about the cost of construction is overwhelmingly important in determining the cost of electricity from nuclear because building the plant accounts for nearly 80% of the total price tag. More predictable fuel and operating costs, including waste disposal, account for the remainder. …….https://theconversation.com/what-does-nuclear-power-cost-old-plants-dispel-easy-answers-41379

May 22, 2015 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | general