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China’s much touted nuclear future is not so sure

flag-ChinaNuclear power in China –  Promethean perils, The Economist Dec 6th 2014 | SHANGHAI |
“………forecasts should be taken with a big pinch of salt. It is true that China is the brightest spot in the global nuclear industry, but that is mostly because prospects in other places are bleak. It is also true that China’s need to tackle pollution and desire to curb carbon emissions will give nuclear power a boost, but these factors also favour rival clean-energy technologies. In short, today’s nuclear revival may well not live up to investors’ lofty expectations.

One factor that could slow growth is cost. In the past Chinese governments were happy to throw endless pots of money at favoured state firms in industries deemed “strategic”. Times are changing, however. Economic growth is slowing, and the government must now deal with massive debts left over from previous investment binges. Since the export-oriented and investment-led model of growth is sputtering, officials may soon be keen to boost domestic consumption rather than merely shovel subsidised capital at big investment projects.

And it is not just that China may—and should—be starting to pay attention to the true cost of infrastructure projects. Rapid technological advances are also making low-carbon alternatives to nuclear power appear more attractive. Bloomberg New Energy Finance, an industry publisher, forecasts that onshore wind will be the cheapest way to make electricity in the country by 2030. Though coal will remain China’s leading fuel for some time, Bloomberg’s analysts think that renewables could produce three times as much power as nuclear in the country by that year……..
Another drag on growth could be nagging doubts about safety. Philippe Jamet, a French nuclear safety commissioner, told his country’s parliament earlier this year that Chinese counterparts were “overwhelmed”. Wang Yi of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, an expert body, has warned that there are indeed “uncertainties” in the approach to nuclear safety…….
A word of warning comes from the man who matters most. President Xi Jinping, speaking at a nuclear-security summit in the Netherlands earlier this year, likened the technology to the gift of fire granted by Prometheus to humanity. It can bring great benefits, he said, but without proper safeguards “such a bright future will be overshadowed by dark clouds or even ruined by resulting disasters.”
http://www.economist.com/news/business/21635498-after-hiatus-nuclear-power-set-revival-china-promethean-perils

December 8, 2014 - Posted by | China, politics

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