nuclear-news

All of these actors are purportedly motivated to support nuclear power on climate grounds, emphasizing the technology’s extraordinarily small physical footprint, its ability to generate massive amounts of electricity, and its lack of carbon emissions (after the plants are built). And they are probably right that the risks of radiation have been historically overblown as “junk science” wormed its way into popular culture. But the anti-nuclear crowd (and I, too, used to count myself among them) is probably right for the wrong reasons.

Missing from the entire debate about nuclear is the most important fact of all: Nuclear is dying due to poor economics, and the debate is already over as far as the market is concerned. 

Shellenberger and Nordhaus have backed up their arguments with junk accounting on nuclear energy’s costs. This is where the discussion must depart from mere boosterism and descend into the deep, dark world of energy economics—a subject that Blustein did not even address.

The generally accepted way to compare the cost of various power generation technologies is a levelized cost of energy (LCOE) analysis. There are valid questions about this approach, which serious energy analysts continue to wrangle over. But for mere mortals and policy advocates, LCOE will have to do. There isn’t a better alternative.

As the Energy Information Administration (EIA) explained in the LCOE analysis section of the Annual Energy Outlook 2013:

[LCOE] represents the per-kilowatthour cost (in real dollars) of building and operating a generating plant over an assumed financial life and duty cycle. Key inputs to calculating levelized costs include overnight capital costs, fuel costs, fixed and variable operations and maintenance (O&M) costs, financing costs, and an assumed utilization rate for each plant type. The importance of the factors varies among the technologies. For technologies such as solar and wind generation that have no fuel costs and relatively small O&M costs, the levelized cost changes in rough proportion to the estimated overnight capital cost of generation capacity. For technologies with significant fuel cost, both fuel cost and overnight cost estimates significantly affect the levelized cost. The availability of various incentives, including state or federal tax credits, can also impact the calculation of levelized cost. …As with any projection, there is uncertainty about all of these factors and their values can vary regionally and across time as technologies evolve and fuel prices change.

Anyone who really wants to understand the costs of power generation should read that report, as it explains the many factors, assumptions and uncertainties that a good LCOE analysis entails…….

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it would be very difficult for a utility to make money selling power generated by advanced nuclear plants, if they had to shoulder the entire cost themselves. But they don’t.

Not included in the LCOE analysis is the cost of decommissioning nuclear plants, which is often externalized and pushed onto ratepayers through surcharges on their utility bills, or the cost of managing nuclear waste for decades, which is generally pushed onto taxpayers through the Department of Energy budget. And these are not trivial costs: Edison International estimates that decommissioning its San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station near San Diego, which it permanently retired last week, will cost around $3 billion. So the LCOE analysis actually understates the true, all-in cost of nuclear power.

But the complexity doesn’t end there. As EIA explains, the true cost of power generation can vary substantially based on a number of other factors specific to where the plant is located, including the utilization rate (which depends on the demand character and the existing resource mix where the plant is located), the existing mix of resources in the area, the capacity value (how much of the time the plant will run) on the local grid, and the portfolio diversification needs (the specific mix of generation technologies) of the local utility.

Recognizing these factors, EIA suggests a minimum cost for advanced nuclear of $104.40, an average of $108.40, and a maximum of $115.30/MWh.

Solar photovoltaics (PV) in 2018 would range from a minimum of $112.50, to an average of $144.30, to a maximum of $224.40/MWh.

Wind energy would range from a minimum of $73.50, to an average of $86.60, to a maximum of $99.80/MWh.

The Breakthrough Institute points to this same EIA analysis as proof that “solar costs substantially more than new nuclear construction,” which is correct if one only looks at the average prices. But it’s more complicated than that.

The EIA has historically overestimated the cost of renewables, and underestimated the cost of conventional fuels. The new 50-MW Macho Springs solar plant under construction by First Solar in New Mexico is will deliver power for $50.79/MWh under its Power Purchase Agreement (PPA), and other US solar projects have come in this year in the range of $70 to $90/MWh.

By those recent numbers, the cost of US solar PV is already as little as half that of advanced nuclear generation in 2018. Further, we should bear in mind that the cost of solar and wind is still falling, while the cost of nuclear keeps rising.

Comparing the cost of one power generation source to another can get much more complex still, including the crucial matter of commodity and construction costs between now and 2018—a subject fraught with uncertainty all on its own—and future policy deci..

sions.

The BTI’s duff maths

The Breakthrough Institute elects to ignore all of this real-world complexity and offer its own extremely distorted way of comparing power generation costs……

…….In short: Cost estimates for new nuclear plants are not credible. I have yet to find a single one that stood up to close scrutiny. And as far as I am aware, no nuclear plant has ever been built for close to its original cost estimate.

With numerous, highly transparent LCOE analyses available from EIA, NREL, and other agencies, why does the BTI ignore them in favor of their own, partial analysis, based on a developer’s cost estimate?

They appear to have begun with the predetermination that nuclear power is the only solution to distorted, and outright wrong pile of evidence to make their case.everything, and then rounded up a highly selective, http://qz.com/94817/the-real-reason-to-fight-nuclear-power-has-nothing-to-do-with-health-risks/