nuclear-news

China’s nuclear safety prospects are not good

China is projected to have 71 nuclear power stations by 2020. If we use the figure of 4,922 reactor-years as explained above, then China will “most probably” suffer a major nuclear accident within the next 69 years.

Chinese nuclear technology can be regarded as approaching global levels, with similar design, safety and operational standards. But to reduce costs, Chinese designs often cut back on safety. In the past, earthquake-resilience was lower than in Japan, for example. China also has much less experience of this sector than Japan.

Chinese nuclear disaster ‘highly probable’ by 2030 The Ecologist, He Zuoxiu 25th October 2013 As the UK prepares to build a fleet of new nuclear power stations with Chinese capital and expertise, a former state nuclear expert warns: China itself is heading for nuclear catastrophe. Some members of the nuclear power industry rely too much on theoretical calculations, when only experience can provide real accuracy.

The lifetime of nuclear reactors is calculated in “reactor-years”. One reactor year means one reactor operating for one year. The world’s 443 nuclear power plants have been running for a total of 14,767 reactor-years, during which time there have been 23 accidents involving a reactor core melting. That’s one major accident every 642 reactor years.

But according to the design requirements, an accident of that scale should only happen once every 20,000 reactor years. The actual incidence is 32 times higher than the theory allows.

Some argue this criticism is unfair. After all, 17 of those 23 accidents were caused by human error – something hard to account for in calculations. But human error is impossible to eliminate, and cannot be ignored when making major policy decisions.

Even if we set aside the accidents attributed to human error, technical failings have caused core melting once every 2,461 reactor-years. That’s still more than eight times the theoretical calculation.

Lessons from the US, Russia and Japan

The US and former Soviet Union had been operating nuclear power for 267 and 162 reactor-years respectively before a major accident occurred. Japan managed to get to 1,442 reactor-years before Fukushima struck.

At the time of the Three Mile Island accident in 1979, the US had 52 nuclear power stations, which had been operating for 267 reactor years, or an average of 5.1 years per reactor. At the time of the Chernobyl disaster in 1986, the Soviet Union’s power plants had been running for an average of just 3.5 reactor years.

Why did the US and Soviet Union experience accidents so quickly? First, the US rapidly built more than 50 nuclear power stations, and the larger the sample the larger the chances of an incident.

Second, as the first country to experience a major nuclear accident, the US was operating with little experience. In the Soviet Union, another factor was also at play – major design failings in the technology used.

After these events, improvements in nuclear safety were made worldwide…

…. The only country with more than 50 nuclear power plants not to have suffered a major accident is France, with 58 nuclear power stations and a total of 1,519 reactor-years.
France has a lot of advantages in the nuclear field – a long history of nuclear technology and domestic research, good nuclear fuel reprocessing facilities and comprehensive policies on nuclear development. Moreover, it isn’t prone to earthquakes, has a moderate climate and is expected to be less threatened by global warming.

A number of people have predicted that France could be vulnerable to a terrorist attack on its nuclear facilities in the near future, with the potential to cause a major disaster. After Fukushima, security was stepped up at the country’s nuclear power stations, but it’s too early to say if this will ensure another six decades of safe operation.

October 29, 2013 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | China, safety