nuclear-news

• INTERPRETING ANY COUNTRY’S PRONOUNCEMENTS ABOUT ITS NUCLEAR WEAPONS CAN BE A STUDY IN FINE DISTINCTIONS, BUT OCCASIONALLY A STATE SAYS — OR FAILS TO SAY — SOMETHING IN A CLEAR BREAK FROM THE PAST. A CHINESE WHITE PAPER ON DEFENSE, RELEASED ON TUESDAY, FALLS INTO THIS CATEGORY AND NOW DEMANDS OUR ATTENTION, BECAUSE IT OMITS A PROMISE THAT CHINA WILL NEVER USE NUCLEAR WEAPONS FIRST……

 In 1964, immediately after testing its first nuclear weapon, China promised to “never at any time or under any circumstances be the first to use nuclear weapons.” This “no-first-use pledge” was explicitly and unconditionally included in each of China’s defense white papers, from the first, in 1998, through the sixth and most recent, in 2011. It was among the strongest assurances in the world of no-first-use, a stance that the United States has never taken.
The change this year is almost certainly not the result of bureaucratic error. No-first-use has been such an intrinsic part of the Chinese nuclear liturgy that the authors of the white paper would have been extremely unlikely to have forgotten it. Besides, other evidence indicates that a broader rethinking of Chinese nuclear strategy may be under way…….

A  candid, high-level dialogue regarding nuclear deterrence has been needed for some time. The new white paper and Mr. Xi’s speech have made the need urgent.

While the probability of nuclear escalation is low, the consequences would be catastrophic. The risk of nuclear use is already unacceptably high and, for that reason alone, mutual confidence-building is necessary. In addition, mutual suspicion in the nuclear domain spills over into the conventional domain, complicating efforts to reduce the chance of any kind of conflict…… http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/19/opinion/is-china-changing-its-position-on-nuclear-weapons.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0