nuclear-news

 Over the years, the North Koreans have learned that outrageously provocative behavior is never punished. In 1968, North Koreans seized and tortured the crew of the USS Pueblo, releasing them only after the United States apologized for spying. In 1976, they hacked to death two U.S. soldiers trying to cut down a tree in the joint security area at Panmunjom. In response, President Ford sent in a force — strangely called Operation Paul Bunyan — not to retaliate, but to surround and cut down the offending tree. As recently as 2010, North Korea shelled a South Korean island and sank one of its ships; except for some limited South Korean return fire, the best the world could muster were a lot of heated words.

The North Koreans, naturally, have drawn two lessons: First, that South Korea and the United States will do practically anything to avoid a conflict. Any action short of an all-out invasion of the South is likely to be met only with a lot of heavy diplomatic breathing. Second, that international isolation actually pays. It leads the United States and South Korea not only to constantly solicit diplomatic talks, but even occasionally to give Pyongyang aid if it only promises to stop its threatening behavior…… Two things appear to be going on: First, the young Mr. Kim is trying to prove himself, not only to us, but possibly to his own people, by playing tough. Second, and more worrisome, the leadership may be emboldened by the belief that they’re very close to possessing a nuclear missile capable of reaching the United States.

The situation is ripe for miscalculation. The new South Korean president, Park Geun-hye, whose mother was killed by a North Korean agent, has made it clear she will not roll over like other South Korean leaders. Moreover, there is a new U.S.-South Korean agreement that could result in the United States more forcefully backing the South militarily short of all-out war. Another North Korean attack could result in the U.S. forces joining South Korea in some form of military retaliation.

Either way, we should not think this is a case of parties on the peninsula crying wolf. North Korea has shown time and time again it will strike with violence. It may well be on the verge of doing so again.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/apr/3/decoding-north-koreas-nuclear-rhetoric/