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For decades, Britain has held to the principle that one of the four submarines that carry nuclear-tipped Trident II missiles must always be at sea – ready to fire at a moment’s notice.
In a speech in the House of Lords, Lord Browne – who, as defence secretary Des Browne, helped draw up the last white paper on Trident in 2006 – will declare that the principle is outdated.

“The time is now right, in my view, to change our posture and to step down from continuous at sea deterrence,” he plans to say. “This would demonstrate that nuclear weapons played less and less of a role in our national security strategy.”

Some defence experts have long argued that the UK no longer needs round-the-clock Trident readiness. This is because it does not face such obvious threats of imminent physical attack, as was the case during the cold war.

Lord Browne will argue that this new step in disarmament is needed because the UK is adopting a “double standard” – insisting emerging powers cannot have nuclear weapons while the UK has a weapon on standby at all times.

His intervention is significant for two reasons. First, it is very rare for a former UK defence secretary to question core national doctrine on Trident. Michael Portillo is thought to be the only other former defence secretary to have done so.
Second, an abandonment of round-the-clock deterrence would open the way to significant cuts in the capital cost of replacing the four Vanguard submarines after 2016.

His speech comes only two days after Danny Alexander, the Liberal Democrat chief secretary to the Treasury, said Britain did not need to replace the Trident fleet with “like-for-like” nuclear submarines that would cost the country billions of pounds at a time of national austerity.

In an interview with the Guardian, Mr Alexander set the Lib Dems at odds with their Conservative coalition partners by saying there were “credible and compelling alternatives” to CASD.

Philip Hammond, the defence secretary, has argued that Britain must opt for like-for-like replacement. A final decision on whether to spend £25bn on the project must be taken by 2016.

If it abandoned round the clock deterrence, the UK might need only three, or even two, submarines to replace the current fleet of four.

It might also be able to delay the decision to build a new fleet until well after 2016. This is because relaxation of CASD would allow the current ageing fleet to be run at a less-punishing tempo.