nuclear-news

A new strategy is needed, as Asian and Middle Eastern countries join the nuclear weapons club

the most urgent problem stems from the breakdown of major countries’
one-time nuclear monopoly and the empowerment of smaller countries
like North Korea, Pakistan, Israel, and, quite possibly, Iran. A new
set of rules for diplomacy, military strategy, and arms control is
needed to stabilise this emerging nuclear order. Pretending that it
does not exist is not a strategy.

The second nuclear age BY PAUL BRACKEN, JANUARY 11 2013 BD
Live“……The contours of the second nuclear age are still taking
shape. But the next few years will be especially perilous, because
newness itself creates dangers as rules and red lines are redefined.
This took at least ten years in the first nuclear age, and this time
may be no different.

In the Middle East, South Asia, and East Asia, old rivalries now
unfold in a nuclear context. This has already changed military
postures across the Middle East. Part of the Israeli nuclear arsenal
is being shifted to sea, with atomic warheads on diesel submarines, to
prevent their being targeted in a surprise attack. Israel also is
launching a new generation of satellites to provide early warning of
other countries’ preparations for missile strikes. If Iran’s mobile
missiles disperse, Israel wants to know about it immediately.

Thus, the old problem of Arab-Israeli peace is now seen in the new
context of an Iranian nuclear threat. The two problems are linked. How
would Israel respond to rocket attacks from Gaza, Lebanon, or Egypt if
it simultaneously faced the threat of nuclear attack by Iran? What
would the United States and Israel do if Iran carried its threat to
the point of evacuating its cities, or placing missiles in its own
cities to ensure that any attack on them would cause massive
collateral damage?

Pakistan has doubled the size of its nuclear arsenal in the last five
years. Its armed forces are set to field new tactical nuclear weapons
— short-range battlefield weapons. India has deployed a nuclear triad
— bombers, missiles, and submarines — and in 2012 tested an
intercontinental ballistic missile, giving it the ability to hit
Beijing and Shanghai. India almost certainly has a multiple warhead
(known as a MIRV), in development, and has also launched satellites to
aid its targeting of Pakistan’s forces.

In East Asia, North Korea has gone nuclear and is set to add a whole
new class of uranium bombs to its arsenal. It has rehearsed quick
missile salvos, showing that it could launch attacks on South Korea
and Japan before any counter-strike could be landed.

China, too, is shifting its nuclear forces to mobile missiles and
submarines. These weapons can be put on alert in a way that would be
highly visible to US satellites and the global media. Thus, the
Chinese can easily “nuclearise” a crisis with the US or anyone else.
They do not have to detonate a nuclear weapon, but only alert
adversaries to the dramatic increase in the political stakes and
dangers of a showdown.

Russia, not wanting to be left out of the act, has recently staged the
largest nuclear exercises in decades to remind everyone that it
remains a serious nuclear player, too…….
the most urgent problem stems from the breakdown of major countries’
one-time nuclear monopoly and the empowerment of smaller countries
like North Korea, Pakistan, Israel, and, quite possibly, Iran. A new
set of rules for diplomacy, military strategy, and arms control is
needed to stabilise this emerging nuclear order. Pretending that it
does not exist is not a strategy.
http://www.bdlive.co.za/opinion/bdalpha/2013/01/11/the-second-nuclear-age

January 11, 2013 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | 2 WORLD, weapons and war