nuclear-news

Australia -Talk of a nuclear ‘bonanza’ is just an elaborate con job

• Gavin Mudd, Jim Green 
• From:The Courier-Mail 
• November 05, 2012

Another part of the con concerns jobs. The Australian Uranium Association says 2620 new jobswill be created by uranium mining in Queensland, a figure repeated by state MP Rob Katter among others.

But IBISWorld’s market report says there are just 650 jobs across Australia in uranium mining. The World Nuclear Association puts the figure at 1760 jobs, including exploration and regulation and even that generous figure amounts to less than 0.02 per cent of all jobs in Australia.

Does the AUA really expect us to believe uranium mining will generate more jobs in Queensland than every other state put together? They’re playing us for fools. The AUA itself has commissioned research by Deloitte Insight Economics which estimates a peak increase of 410 jobs from uranium mining in Queensland and an average increase of 155 jobs over the next 20 years.

Claims about export revenue are similarly inflated. Queensland Resources Council chief executive Michael Roche claims the known uranium resource in Queensland is valued at $18 billion. Yet earlier this month the World Nuclear Association updated its paper on Australia’s uranium oxide resources. For Queensland, the total estimate is 74,000 tonnes.

At the 2011 rate for Australia’s uranium exports ($100,000 a tonne), that would amount to $7.4 billion well under half the QRC figure.

It is highly unlikely that all of the deposits can be mined economically, especially since most of the larger deposits (for example, the entire Valhalla deposits) are much more difficult and expensive to process due to the uranium being present in refractory brannerite mineralisation.

The situation unfolding in Western Australia in recent years is that hardly any of the 11 or so known deposits are being developed. Only one company is seriously pushing ahead Toro Energy’s proposed Wiluna uranium mine in the Goldfields.

In August, BHP Billiton sold the Yeelirrie deposit in WA despite previously calling it an “outstanding long-term opportunity”. In the same month, BHP Billiton cancelled plans to expand the Olympic Dam uranium/copper mine (pictured) in South Australia.

Let’s assume the uranium industry has much better luck in Queensland than it has had in WA and exports half of the known uranium resource so we halve the $7.4 billion figure to $3.7 billion, which is far removed from the QRC’s figure of $18 billion. And remember these are total life-time figures, not annual figures.

The QRC says its $18 billion resource value translates into $900 million in royalties.

That calculation assumes a 5 per cent royalty figure.

But under existing Queensland legislation, the royalty rate would be 2.5 per cent.

So royalties would amount to 2.5 percent of $3.7 billion or $92.5 million, barely one-tenth of the QRC figure.

One last part of the puzzle is the global nuclear power “renaissance”. Ten years into this so-called renaissance, global nuclear power capacity has not increased at all.

Indeed global nuclear capacity hasn’t increased for more than 20 years. Perhaps nuclear capacity will increase in the coming years, but a more likely outcome is ongoing stagnation with no increase in demand for uranium.

The bottom line is that uranium will be nothing more than a very, very small contributor to the Queensland economy, as it is to the national economy. 

Dr Gavin Mudd is a senior lecturer in Environmental Engineering at Monash University.

Dr Jim Green is the national nuclear campaigner with Friends of the Earth, Australia.

http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/opinion/talk-of-a-nuclear-bonanza-is-just-an-elaborate-con-job/story-e6frerc6-1226510118799

November 4, 2012 - Posted by arclight2011 | Uncategorized