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“Baseload power” soon to be outmoded by smart grids, flexible energy sources

the concept of baseload and peaking power – the current model for electricity grids worldwide – will be replaced by a system of flexible and inflexible energy sources……    a smart grid system.

The end of baseload? It may come sooner than you think, RENeweconomy, By Giles Parkinson   20 February 2012 One of the principal architects of Germany’s push into renewable energy technologies, Hans-Josef Fell, believes that the country could achieve 100 per cent renewables in its electricity sector by 2030 – and may do it quicker. The rest of the world could follow soon after.

Fell, a Greens politican and architect of the the feed-in-tariffs that have helped the country already produce 20 per cent of its energy from wind, solar, biomass and geothermal sources, and pushed it to the forefront of clean energy technologies, says the growth of renewables will continue at an exponential rate. This is partly because of the growing cost of conventional fossil fuels, and partly because of their inability (part from gas) to balance the intermittent nature of renewable energy generation.

In an interview with RenewEconomy, Fell says a 100 per cent renewables electricity grid in Germany may be 40-50 per cent wind, 30-40 per cent solar, with the rest coming from other sources. Balancing this generation, however, would be the key challenge.

“This  is not possible with baseload, because you cannot switch them on and off very fast,” he said. “It was possible with gas-fired power stations, but peaking gas stations these were also emissions-intensive, and European countries such as Germany had to depend on gas imports from Russia. He said new smart grid technologies and storage, where costs would also rapidly decline, would provide the answer.

Fell is effectively echoing the scenarios painted by Australian researchers David Mills, and from Mark Diesendorp and Ben Elliston at UNSW – along with preliminary work by the IEA, which suggests the concept of baseload and peaking power – the current model for electricity grids worldwide – will be replaced by a system of flexible and inflexible energy sources.

The ability to provide dispatchable, cost competitive energy, will largely decide the fate of the 100 per cent renewable goal, and of gas. Fell says there is clearly resistance from the conventional electricity energy, which sees its business model at risk, and which he says is fighting with “lies and misinformation.”

The cost appears horrendous. Fell puts it at $US100 trillion over 20 years, if the world was to transform to an entirely 100 per cent grid by 2030. It’s an academic number – based around work done by Stanford and Davis Universities in the US, but  he says the world would be paying double that  if it continued with conventional fuel sources. And he says while feed in tariffs might cause higher energy costs initially, these are quickly absorbed by the “merit order effect”, and will deliver further benefit as the cost curves of falling renewable energy sources and rising conventional sources intersect, as they have already done with onshore wind and coal and gas in Europe…..

[In Germany] The feed-in-tariff has driven high investment and so much innovation – in wind power and biogas and solar PV, that costs have dropped down very fast and solar PV is now as cheap as grid electricity……. In reality, in Germany the wholesale price of electricity is going down. When we have a lot of wind and sun, we can close down the most expensive electricity generation, and we get a price which is cheaper than without renewables. Now, new investment in wind power is cheaper than new coal fired power station, and it will continue to fall. With oil and gas and coal and uranium, the prices will rise and rise and rise………

We have had a big cold winter, and France did not have enough from nuclear, so they bought electricity from Germany. We have so much that we can export it to Grance and help them in a cold winter so they don’t get a blackout.

And we are not at the end of the innovation process. Look at the semiconductor and information technology industries, where prices have been dropping down very very fast in the last 20 years, like laptops, mobile phones etc. PV is like semiconductors, the PV price will go down very fast in coming years. Solar will become the cheapest energy that we can have in the world……

In Germany, we could achieve 100% renewable by 2030 at existing rates. We have now 20% in 2010. In 2020 with increasing rates – and these are exponential, we could have 50%, and in 2030 we could have 100%. It is possible but it must be supported by a good political framework, with reduced FiT tariffs, privileged grid access, and other regulatory changes…..

Q: So you are saying that the current model of baseload and peaking power will be replaced by flexible and inflexible energy sources.

A: Yes, and we can also call it a smart grid system. Balance with other energy sources and a lot of storage in hydro pumps, and  batteries and other energy. It is beginning now, we are learning with the grid operation, we need to do it in such a way that it can be done in time and in a way that frequency and volatage is stable.  That very important, but new technology, such as inverters for PV, can bring this about. Balancing is critical, otherwise won’t see enough investment…. http://reneweconomy.com.au/2012/the-end-of-baseload-it-may-come-sooner-than-you-think-29425

February 21, 2012 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | 2 WORLD, renewable