nuclear-news

Bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities would be counter productive

If we bomb Iran, Tehran will go nuclear. Is that really what Niall Ferguson wants? Telegraph UK, By David Blair,   February 8th, 2012 What should Israel and the West do about Iran? Niall Ferguson thinks that war would be justified and in this week’s Newsweek he sets out to demolish the case against a pre-emptive strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He lists the “five reasons” why people oppose military action and knocks them down one by one.

But, oddly, he doesn’t bother with the biggest objection of all: going to war with Iran would not solve the problem. Whatever nuclear
facilities you destroy with air strikes could be rebuilt. If the
Islamic Republic’s leaders are (as Ferguson thinks) determined get a
bomb now, they will be even more resolute after suffering an Israeli
or Western assault.
At present, Iran’s known nuclear installations are all monitored by
inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency. That’s
important because it gives us some assurance that if Iran did try to
enrich uranium to weapons grade, we would at least know what was going
on and have some warning before they reach the point where they could
make a bomb. You can be sure there would be no inspectors around if
Iran were to start rebuilding its nuclear facilities after a war.
The unwelcome reality is that if Iran’s leaders really are determined
to get a bomb, military action will not stop them. It will just put
off the evil day when they finally reach their goal. If we go to war,
we run all the risks that Ferguson mentions for the sake of buying
time, not solving the problem.
In fact, we might even be doing Iran’s rulers a favour…. One further
point: Ferguson assumes that Iran’s leaders have decided to build a
bomb. Actually, the American and British assessment is that Tehran
wants the option of becoming a nuclear power, but has not decided
whether to actually take the plunge and make a weapon. If we attack
them, they certainly would take a decision – and it would not be the
one we wanted. So war comes with a great risk attached: we could end
up guaranteeing exactly what we seek to prevent.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/davidblair/100136040/if-we-bomb-iran-tehran-will-go-nuclear-is-that-really-what-niall-ferguson-wants/

February 9, 2012 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | general