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A military strike on Iran could be more catastrophic than accepting a nuclear Iran

The Gathering Storm: A pessimistic prognosis for 2012 A military attack on Iran, by either Israel or the U.S., might lead to no less catastrophic consequences than a nuclear-armed regime in Tehran. Haaretz, By Chemi Shalev, 30 Dec 11 “….. with Israel and Iran’s nuclear programs, it is a clear and present danger visible to all, discussed and dissected day
in and day out in newspapers, think tanks and intelligence forums throughout the world. Therefore, let’s dispense with looking back at 2011, and concentrate on the day of reckoning that will arrive, by all indications, over the course of 2012……..

Israel and the U.S. will soon be called upon to decide between a preemptive military strike and coming to terms with Iran as the world’s tenth nuclear power…..
In the moment of truth, if left with no other choice, I believe that
Israel will choose the military option. Realizing this, and
acknowledging that a nuclear Iran is a clear and present danger to its
own national security, the United States may take upon itself to carry
most of the burden. From Israel’s point of view, the latter scenario
is immeasurably preferable to the former, but in both cases, the cure
might be just as bad, or perhaps even worse, than the disease itself,
as so many of Israel’s security chiefs, in the army, the Shin Bet and
the Mossad, have argued in recent years.

Iran and, no less importantly, the increasingly unpredictable Syria,
have hundreds of long range, high yield ballistic missiles capable of
delivering many tons of TNT as well as chemical and biological
warheads to any point in Israel; Hezbollah has at least 40,000 short
and medium range missiles that could inflict heavy damage on Israel’s
north; Hamas in Gaza, though not in that league, could also launch
scores of less destructive but no less traumatizing missiles into
Israeli cities south of Tel Aviv while creating mayhem on the borders
as well; and West Bank Palestinians, as well as some Israeli Arabs,
could very well decide to join such an offensive jihad themselves.

The physical and psychological destructive potential of such an
all-out onslaught should be enough to temper the enthusiasm of even
the most gung-ho supporters of an attack on Iran. It’s not that Israel
would not survive such an attack, but there should be no doubt that it
would be changed forever, and even this bleak outlook ignores a
scenario in which Israel feels compelled to threaten, and perhaps even
employ, its reported doomsday arsenal…..
The dangerous ramifications for Israel – and for the U.S. – of a
nuclear Iran have already been dissected at length, even if one
assumes that Iran is not an irrational state and would be deterred by
Israel’s first or even second-strike potential. A military attack, by
either Israel or the U.S., might lead to no less catastrophic
consequences, even when one relies on an assumption, contested by many
experts, that such a strike could achieve its military goals…..
http://www.haaretz.com/blogs/west-of-eden/the-gathering-storm-a-pessimistic-prognosis-for-2012-1.404463

December 30, 2011 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | Iran, politics international, weapons and war