nuclear-news

Arms control experts doubt report that China’s nuclear arsenal is very large

US experts skeptical over China nuclear force report, By Dan De Luce (AFP) –2 Dec 11 WASHINGTON — Arms control experts are dismissing a report by US university students that suggests China’s nuclear arsenal may be much larger than previously estimated, saying the research is shoddy and unreliable.

The unconventional study by students at Georgetown University, under the supervision of a former Pentagon official, examines China’s vast network of tunnels for storing missiles and concludes the country could have up to 3,000 nuclear warheads, far higher than the current estimates of roughly 250.

The 363-page study has not been published but it has been circulated at the Pentagon and a Washington Post article Wednesday revealed its findings, which attracted global media attention.

But experts who track nuclear weapons and China’s arsenal in particular slammed the report’s methods, and a Pentagon official said there were no plans to alter the US government’s estimate of China’s arsenal.

“China has not produced enough fissile material to produce 3,000 nuclear weapons,” said Hans Kristensen, director of the nuclear information project at the Federation of American Scientists.

“Nor do they have delivery systems for so many weapons. It’s just inaccurate on all fronts, that estimate,” he told AFP.

The report has been reviewed by the Defense Department but has not led to a revision of estimates on the size of China’s nuclear force, said a senior defense official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

“The findings of the report have been noted,” said the official. But “there is no change in our assessment.”…..

Its [the report’s] sources range from a fictionalized Chinese TV show to a 400-page manual produced by the Second Artillery Corps, which oversees China’s strategic weapons, according to the Post.

Kristensen and other experts said the report’s suggestion that China could have a massive arsenal of thousands of warheads is based on outdated and dubious sources.

“You cannot extrapolate from old data,” he said… http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jR40Uyl45JGb5Y8_AXZC3SVqPffQ?docId=CNG.980daa5a106d480849b20e4314712118.441

December 3, 2011 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | China, weapons and war