nuclear-news

Iran is not racing toward a nuclear weapon

“We know what’s going on in (the monitored sites) now, and what’s going on in them now is not indicative of an Iran that’s racing toward a nuclear weapon,”

Analysis: Iran’s nuclear showdown with West still short of war, msnbc.com 11/22/2011 LONDON — Iran’s nuclear standoff with the West has led to much harsher
words and new economic sanctions, but Tehran has yet to cross the red lines that would prompt Israel or the United States to contemplate military action…..

For now at least, experts say there was nothing in the IAEA report that makes military action more likely. If anything, it points to the limits of the effectiveness of a military campaign, which would have to be weighed against the risk of starting a potentially catastrophic
regional war.

The report was mainly based on information already known to Western intelligence agencies. It did not reveal the sort of new evidence of immediate danger that would lead Israel or the United States to take a decision now about whether they can live with an Iranian atomic bomb
or must take urgent military action to prevent it.

Instead, Western states are likely to stick to diplomacy and economic
measures, while keeping a vigilant eye out for as-yet-untaken steps –
such as expelling international monitors or diverting nuclear material
from known sites – that might show Iran was embarking on an all-out
bid to build a bomb.

“The route that continues to be taken and favored by the international
community when dealing with Iran is very much one of applying pressure
and a desire to return to the negotiating table,” said Marie Bos,
Middle East analyst for Control Risks Group, a consultancy firm.

“We still feel at this stage that the scenario of a military strike
remains an unlikely one.”…….

The West’s main concern of late about actual activity on the ground in
Iran has been its enrichment of uranium to 20 percent purity, a level
which Western states say is more than it needs for peaceful nuclear
power.

But 20 percent pure uranium is still not pure enough to make a bomb.
The enrichment is taking place at sites that are known and monitored,
and the IAEA says it has not seen material being diverted.

It would take another event – a decision by Iran to expel inspectors,
the emergence of evidence of other undeclared nuclear sites or the
diversion of material from existing sites – to raise the enrichment
from a worry to an immediate threat.

“We know what’s going on in (the monitored sites) now, and what’s
going on in them now is not indicative of an Iran that’s racing toward
a nuclear weapon,” said Berger.

“There might be something that would compel a change in thinking on
the military option, but right now it doesn’t have much utility. So
other options might be better.”….

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45400950/ns/world_news-mideast_n_africa/#.Ts12GrK5Pjw

November 23, 2011 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | Iran, weapons and war