nuclear-news

The psychology of attitudes in Iran to nuclear power

what about Ahmadinejad’s promise to “wipe Israel off the face of the map?” Several problems exist with the idea.

Firstly, scholars of the Persian language say that his oft-cited words have been mistranslated and taken out of context. Ahmadinejad was actually quoting the revolutionary regime’s founder, Ayatollah Khoemeni, not making a policy statement.. (Read here for more on this dispute). 

The Threat of a Nuclear Theocracy, Act II. Slate, By Michael Moran , Nov. 15, 2011 As the U.S. debate over Iran’s nuclear program has heated up, an issue of war and peace is being framed in a very dangerous way. The United States, with all its other problems right now, must get this right, because all options on Iran’s nuclear program are laden with risk, and the truth is very inconvenient.

The debate—roughly sanctions and diplomacy versus airstrikes—fails to acknowledge some important facts, the most important of which is that neither a military option—short of the lunacy of an all-out invasion of Iran—nor diplomacy will guarantee that Iran won’t soon gatecrash the nuclear club.

I am under no illusions that Iran is trying to develop the ability to build a nuclear weapon. But the ability to build one and the intention of using it remain quite different things—and this, too, is entirely absent from the U.S. debate…….

The more important thing to focus on, however, is what is not being discussed. No one—not in the Obama administration, certainly not on the pro-war right—wants to concede the fact that, regardless of which course is taken, the question of whether Iran goes nuclear or not depends a great deal more on what Iranians decide than on any action by the U.S., Israel, or the international community. Once again, our inability to come to terms with the limits of American power mean that, for the third time in just over a decade, a war debate is playing out during an election year—when money, sound bites and political considerations will be given a great deal more influence on the answer than any sane person should hope.

Republicans, who have started debating foreign policy of late (I missed the meeting where they actually decided to have a foreign policy), sing largely from the same hymnal, with Ron Paul the isolationist exception. Prodded by a cadre of former Bush administration officials penning op-eds spiced with words like Armageddon andappeasement, the hawks have maneuvered the White House into the unenviable position of having to prove a series of negatives:…….

Understanding the Risks

What’s more, the downside risks of launching or even green-lighting a military strike against Iran are enormous. Unlike Iraq, Iran does not need WMD to strike back hard against the United States. Its potential ability to shut down Gulf oil production, its ties to Hezbollah and Hamas, its Shia Iraqi allies in the Mahdi Army, and the fact that the warlords of relatively quiet western Afghanistan look to Tehran for inspiration—all these factors loom as possible retaliatory scenarios. ……

MAD Dog Theory

But what about Ahmadinejad’s promise to “wipe Israel off the face of the map?” Several problems exist with the idea.

Firstly, scholars of the Persian language say that his oft-cited words have been mistranslated and taken out of context. Ahmadinejad was actually quoting the revolutionary regime’s founder, Ayatollah Khoemeni, not making a policy statement.. (Read here for more on this dispute).

But let’s take the bluster at face value. A more important point is that Ahmadinejad has lost most of his control over Iran’s military and intelligence agencies. Following his rigged re-election in 2009, the Green Revolution very nearly swept the entire Islamic regime into the Persian Gulf. At that point, Ahmadinijad became a figurehead and Iran’s true power, the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, reasserted control by unleashing Iran’s Revolutionary Guards. Thus did the elected president of Iran learn the same lesson that the liberal, educated urban elites of the Green Revolution did: Voting does not make you a democracy……

Ironically, Iran most likely is seeking to emulate the Israeli model of nuclear proliferation. In the 1960s, through espionage and scientific effort, Israel secretly built a nuclear arsenal whose existence is officially denied to this day. “Strategic ambiguity” is the Israeli term for this stance, and while it remains an irritant in Mideast relations, it has served Israel very well. No one—least of all the Iranians—doubts the existence of a large, sophisticated Israeli nuclear arsenal.

So as familiar voices promote the case for war against Iran, imagine yourself in Tehran: What serves your interests better:

testing a nuclear weapon and deepening Iran’s economic isolation and domestic unrest?
launching a crude device at Israel and committing national suicide?
or pursuing research right up to the point of weaponization, leaving your enemies to wonder just how many you might have stored in deep underground bunkers?
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_reckoning/2011/11/15/iran_and_the_threat_of_a_nuclear_theocracy_act_ii.html

November 16, 2011 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | Iran, psychology - mental health