nuclear-news

The freedom from nuclear terrorism that the world has enjoyed is due, no doubt, to some combination of the competence of concerned governments and the incompetence of those who seek to inflict mass harm. Luck has also played a role. In light of the potential demand for nuclear materials by terrorists and the black market supply, the odds of terrorist nuclear attack occurring somewhere in the world are still far too high.

On the demand side, Al Qaeda may be on the run. But there are still plenty of violent extremist groups which to varying degrees share Al Qaeda’s ideology and intent to cause harm. Copycat wannabes and lone wolves also present a threat. Although constructing even crude nuclear weapons requires a level of knowledge and organizational sophistication beyond the reach of most terrorist networks, even a single operative can find ways to misuse radiological material for terrorist purpose. Anders Breivik, perpetrator of the July 22 Oslo twin attacks, devoted 42 pages of his “manifesto” to nuclear and radiological terrorism. His intent on high-impact terrorism and his understanding of the hurdles and consequences inherent in a radiological attack are ample warning of the genuine possibility of such an event.

On the supply side, the global stockpile of fissile material is sufficient for 100,000 nuclear weapons. Ominously, production is increasing in places such as Pakistan where the terrorism threat will remain high for some time to come. Radiological sources, used for treating cancer and in other common applications but which can be used for dirty bombs to spread radiation, number upwards of a million. Nuclear terrorism includes attacks on nuclear facilities something Breivik analyzed in some detail. Think Fukushima a la Al-Zawahiri. And Fukushima notwithstanding, more countries plan to introduce nuclear power to meet rising energy needs, diversify sources of supply and minimize carbon emissions.

Fortunately, the world is largely united in recognizing the terrorist threat…..