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The problem of Pakistan’s risk of nuclear terrorism

Pakistan nuclear terror: an interview with Stanford’s Scott SaganA leading expert on South Asian nuclear security discusses the risks of terrorists seizing materials from Pakistan’s arsenal.Global Post,David CaseJune 13, 2011“…… To get a better sense of the risks that the arsenal could fall into terrorist hands, GlobalPost spoke with Scott D. Sagan, one of the world’s leading authorities on Pakistan’s nuclear program….. “I think that the security of both Pakistani nuclear weapons and Pakistani fissionable will remain a serious concern for the United States and all international actors…..

The U.S. government has had a longstanding internal debate about whether to isolate Pakistan and punish it for its nuclear weapons program, or to engage Pakistan to try to contain the program and reduce its size and growth. The policy has been of mixed success.

Before 9/11 the United States government had minimal ties to the group within the Pakistani military that had responsibility for nuclear weapons. According to many press reports, after 9/11 the United States government cooperated by selling some technology and providing some training, not for the delivery of nuclear weapons, but rather for the safety and security of nuclear weapons, fearing an Al Qaeda or related group’s attack. What the U.S. government doesn’t know, because Pakistan is so secretive in this area, is what Pakistan has done with those technologies and training programs.

It is believed — and I think this is accurate — that under normal peacetime circumstances, the Pakistani military keeps all or virtually all of the weaponry inside well-armed and guarded Pakistani military bases. That doesn’t mean that those weapons are entirely safe, but it means that they are relatively safe from terrorist seizure. The greatest danger there would be an inside threat of some sort.

The real danger, I believe, comes if the Pakistani military fears an attack, by either India or the United States. Under those circumstances — whether they’re fearful of a raid against their nuclear weaponry, or a military attack using missiles or bombers — they have every incentive for the sake of deterrence, to take the weapons out of their bases and move them to the countryside where they will be less vulnerable to an attack from India or the U.S.

The danger is that makes the weapons more vulnerable to a terrorist seizure, either from an insider or from a terrorist organization. Such a seizure would not require penetrating the defenses of a military base to get to a weapon. Rather, terrorists could simply attack a convoy with nuclear weapons in the countryside…….

Pakistan | Nuclear Security | Scott Sagan | Stanford

June 14, 2011 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | Pakistan, safety