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China’s nuclear arsenal small – but transparency is needed

The driving force in U.S.-Russia nuclear arms reduction and control is that transparency fosters predictability and minimizes the risk of a terrible war by miscalculation. A similar pact must be in the interests of China, India, Pakistan — and the rest of Asia.

Why worry about China’s nuclear warheads?, The Japan Times Online, By MICHAEL RICHARDSON, 3 March, 11, SINGAPORE — Latest estimates by Western analysts put China’s stockpile at 240 warheads, with 175 in active mode and 65 in reserve or waiting to be dismantled because they are considered too old for use.

This is a small arsenal compared with those of the United States and Russia. The U.S. has declared that it has 5,113 active nuclear warheads. Russia is thought to have a similar number; it has indicated it will follow the U.S. and make a full disclosure after their latest treaty on strategic arms cuts has been ratified.

France said several years ago that it had no more than 300 warheads. Britain, the last of the five original nuclear weapons states, disclosed not long ago that it had 225 nuclear weapons, 160 of which are deployed.

Not only is China’s arsenal relatively small, but in normal circumstances the warheads are believed to be held in storage, not mated with delivery systems — mainly missiles of various kinds.

Beijing has also said repeatedly it will never be the first to use nuclear weapons in a conflict. Since the only other Asian nations known to have nuclear weapons are India and Pakistan (an ally of China), Asian countries without such weapons should be able to rest easy.

It may not be as simple as that. Unlike the other four nuclear powers in the treaty to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons, China has not disclosed the size of its arsenal and has increased its nuclear-capable weapons systems by roughly 25 percent in the past five years, according to the U.S. Defense Department.

The optimistic view is that when China thinks it has a credible deterrent for each of its potential nuclear adversaries, it may join the U.S., Russia, Britain and France in being more open about its warhead stockpile and delivery systems.

At that point, China and India will need to negotiate a nuclear deal, assuming that India is confident in the deterrent power of its arsenal. India’s adversary, nuclear-armed Pakistan, will have to be brought into the negotiations.

The driving force in U.S.-Russia nuclear arms reduction and control is that transparency fosters predictability and minimizes the risk of a terrible war by miscalculation. A similar pact must be in the interests of China, India, Pakistan — and the rest of Asia.

March 4, 2011 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | China, weapons and war