nuclear-news

Nuclear accidents, like black swans – rare, but do happen

A Nuclear Secret, THE HUFFINGTON POST, Craig K. Comstock, June 20, 2010 :”……..The point for today is that, when nuclear weapons are involved, we are one step away from irreparable consequences…………….In financial analysis, “black swans” have become a popular metaphor for dangers that are very high in negative consequences, even if they seem vanishingly low in probability. For example, in terms of the behavior of big banks, the economic crisis of 2008 (and beyond); in terms of nuclear power, Chernobyl; in terms of storms, the effects of Katrina; in terms of deep sea drilling, the BP geyser in the gulf; or in terms of rocketry, Challenger (which had happened in the year when I first visited Moscow). These crises share a theme: the very low estimated probability of their happening. Obviously, they did happen. But has this lesson been learned? In the documentary about him, McNamara remarks that he knew of three situations that nearly ended in a nuclear exchange.Since the years after 1991, the U.S. has preened itself as the sole remaining superpower, but the world is still full of nuclear weapons, including warheads in the hands of enemies of each other (India, Pakistan), a potential rival of ours (China), what is called a rogue state (North Korea), plus the core of the former USSR (Russia), European allies of ours (France, Great Britain), and Middle East states (Israel and perhaps in the near future Iran). Apart from their existence, at least some of these warheads and many nuclear materials are ill-guarded and, in any case, subject to the kind of secrets and miscalculation that occurred in the Cuban missile crisis.

Craig K. Comstock: A Nuclear Secret

June 23, 2010 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | 2 WORLD, safety | antinuclear, nuclear, nuclear costs, nuclear secrecy, reactors