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Western powers now hoping that poverty will stop Iran’s nukes

The theory now is that rather than leading directly to a change of policy, the effect of the latest sanctions package will be to underline the cost of maintaining the nuclear programme. The positive message is that compliance with international demands would mean a scramble for western investment

Ahmadinejad may have to choose between uranium and butter, guardian.co.uk, Ian Black, 9 June 2010, Iranian president faces having to raid the coffers to fund his nuclear ambitions, but how will the jobless and hungry react? Iran‘s economy is in serious trouble even without new UN sanctions — and western governments are hoping the new burdens being imposed on the Islamic republic will at least raise the cost of maintaining its nuclear programme.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has insisted Iran will not bow to pressure, but he is facing low or zero growth, rising unemployment, high inflation and, crucially, reduced earnings from the hugely dominant oil and gas sector, the source of 80% of all state revenues. Oil prices are down 16% from this year’s peak, reducing the regime’s ability to buy support………….

No one expects the economy to collapse but the sanctions are likely to have a psychological impact,………..Of Iran’s 73 million people, more than 10 million live in “absolute” poverty and another 30 million in “relative” poverty, according to Iran’s statistics agency…………..

The resolution calls for measures against new Iranian banks abroad if a connection to nuclear or missile programmes is suspected, as well as “vigilance” over transactions with any Iranian bank…………The theory now is that rather than leading directly to a change of policy, the effect of the latest sanctions package will be to underline the cost of maintaining the nuclear programme. The positive message is that compliance with international demands would mean a scramble for western investment — as experienced by Libya after it came in from the cold after giving up support for terrorism and closing down its nuclear programme in 2003.

Ahmadinejad may have to choose between uranium and butter | World news | guardian.co.uk

June 8, 2010 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | 2 WORLD, politics international | enriched, nuclear weapons, uranium