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Complex web of Iran and nuclear problems

Untangling Iran’s Nuclear Web Carnegie Endowment Dmitri Trenin The Moscow Times, October 5, 2009 – “……………..Any strategy needs to proceed with a few basic truths about nuclear weapons and countries that seek them. Nations seeking to join the “nuclear weapons club” are in quest for security and status. In this sense, Iran is no different from India, Pakistan, China or France.

Iran is interested, above all, in gaining security for the ruling regime and strengthening its status as the predominant powerhouse in the Middle East. What is also certain is that Iran, despite President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s inflammatory, malicious anti-Israeli rhetoric, is unlikely to use nuclear weapons to attack the Jewish state if it gets the bomb. But the Israelis do not want to take any chances with Ahmadinejad should he wish to follow through with his promise to wipe Israel off the face of the Earth.

Another unwelcome truth is that if a nation the size of Iran — with its rich energy resources and its inflated ambition and self-image — is determined to build nuclear weapons, it won’t be stopped. At best, a nuclear program can be delayed using surgical air and missile strikes, but short of a military occupation of the country, Iran’s nuclear program will inevitably continue.

The Russians are right about one thing: The only way to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons is to create a situation whereby Iran no longer wants them. But the United States and many of its allies are naive to think Iran would walk away from its nuclear ambitions simply because of the costs incurred by sanctions.

A successful approach would go beyond the nuclear issues and address Iran’s perceived needs and ambitions. Dealing with both is crucial. …………….Moscow needs to take its global responsibility as a permanent member of the Security Council seriously. Stopping proliferation of nuclear weapons in Iran and elsewhere is clearly not only a concern in the West. It directly affects Russia as well. Russia has always said it wanted an active part in world governance. Iran is a test case for the strength of that commitment.

Untangling Iran’s Nuclear Web – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

October 6, 2009 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | 1, Iran, weapons and war | antinuclear, nuclear, nuclear secrecy, nuclear weapons, radioactive