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Iran’s Nuclear and Ballistic Missile Programs

Iran’s Nuclear and Ballistic Missile Programs Remain Shrouded in Secrecy

— Iran has committed numerous violations of its International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards obligations.

Centre for Arms Control and Nuclear Non-Proliferation  17 August 09

— IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei noted in a June 2008 interview that the Iranians “continue to insist that they are interested solely in using nuclear power for civilian purposes. We have yet to find a smoking gun that would prove them wrong. But there are suspicious circumstances and unsettling questions.”^[1]

Estimates of the Status of Iran’s Nuclear and Missile Programs
— Iran does not currently possess a nuclear weapon of any kind.– There is no evidence that Iran has made the political decision to develop a nuclear weapon. In order to develop a nuclear device, Iran would have to either remove IAEA safeguards from its enrichment facility at Natanz and its heavy water reactor at Arak (once it is completed), or produce fissile material and develop a bomb in secret. The IAEA continues to verify the non-diversion of declared nuclear material in Iran. There is no evidence that Iran has conducted a nuclear test or is currently developing secret nuclear facilities. However, so long as Iran continues to refuse to adhere to the Additional Protocol, there is no way to know for sure that its program is purely civilian in nature.– In the event that Iran makes the political decision to develop a nuclear weapon, the weight of the evidence suggests that Iran will not possess a nuclear-armed ballistic missile capable of threatening all of Europe and/or the United States for years to come. * Iran could produce enough highly enriched uranium for a crude nuclear device within six months to a year. Some estimates suggest that it could take Iran much longer than a year – perhaps two to four years – to produce enough highly enriched uranium for a weapon. o According to ISIS, Iran achieved the capability to produce enough highly enriched uranium for a nuclear device sometime in January 2009. ISIS concluded that Iran has not made the political decision to develop a nuclear weapon; but once such a decision is made, it could make enough highly enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon within six months……………….

— There is no hard consensus as to exactly how close Iran is to acquiring a nuclear weapon, fitting a nuclear warhead on a ballistic missile, and/or developing a ballistic missile capable of reaching most of Europe and the United States.

Notes

Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation: Factsheet: Current Status of Iran’s Nuclear and Ballistic Missile Programs

August 19, 2009 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | 1, Iran, weapons and war | antinuclear, nuclear, nuclear weapons, radioactive