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The Credit Crisis and Nuclear Markets

The Credit Crisis and Nuclear Markets
UX Weekly 7 Jan 09 The news that is currently gripping the United States and the world at large is the credit crisis in the U.S. Financial institutions have failed in the U.S. and Europe, and there is concern that more will fail. Things will likely get worse before getting better now that the U.S. House of Representatives voted 228-205 against the financial bailout plan. However, even if this legislation were passed and signed into law, it is not seen as a panacea for the crisis, the effects of which will likely be felt for some time. Pretty much all parts of the world economy have been or will be impacted by it, even the uranium market and nuclear power.
Below we look at both the near-term and the long-term implications for the nuclear industry.

Recently, the uranium market has experienced a great amount of activity as sellers have adopted a more aggressive posture to the market. These sellers have included hedge funds and companies owned by funds or financial interests, and companies facing cash flow issues. One of the major changes in the spot uranium market over the past several years has been a greater involvement of hedge funds and other financial entities in the market. This makes the market more subject to the vicissitudes of the financial sector……………………………. The credit crisis has longer-term effects as well, as it certainly does not bode well for the future of nuclear power. Nuclear power plants are extremely capital intensive and thus require a great deal of financing, which will now be even more expensive and difficult to obtain. The other aspect of the crisis is that economic growth will likely be much slower in the future, and thus there will be less need for new electricity generating capacity, including that based on nuclear power………………………………….

Similar to financing new nuclear power plants, it will be more difficult and more expensive to finance new mines, if they are financed at all. Uranium mining costs, as is the case with all mining costs, have greatly exceeded the general inflation rate even before the recent crisis, and this relationship will likely be maintained or exacerbated in the aftermath of the credit crisis.

The rate of uranium production expansion will be cut back due to both the recent fall in price and higher production costs. Because of this, many prospective projects which were questionable at recent price levels are even more problematic now. Further, the dimmer prospect for a nuclear renaissance in the wake of the credit crisis makes it that much less likely that investments in uranium production infrastructure will be made…………………………….

Finally, the credit crisis reminds us of the very real possibility that markets can fail. We have discussed the concept of market failure as it pertains to the uranium market a number of times in this publication. It is revealing, if certainly not heartening, to see a market failure scenario being played out on such a grand scale, with the government again right in the middle of things.

UxC: UxW – The Credit Crisis and Nuclear Markets

Tags: nuclear, antinuclear, radioactive, uranium

January 7, 2009 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | business and costs